Update

Today's range has been much narrower than I had expected. What does this mean?

I think it is a sign of exhaustion, especially since it has happened the day after the market broke two obvious low points. The rally off of yesterday's low was feeble, so I think we shall see the ES trade near 1020 before a rally of 25-35 points develops. My advancing issues oscillators are showing bullish divergences and are all at low (oversold) levels (check out my chart page for these). So I think this market is scraping bottom.

Guesstimates on June 30, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1030-1055. I expect a rally of 25-35 points from yesterday's low at 1030.25. After that a further drop to 1010 or so is likely. In the meantime any strength above 1075 would mean that the low of the move down from 1216 has been seen and that a new up leg in the bull market has begun.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Looks like ES will hit 1030 today

sold one unit at 1039.00

Long one unit at 1042.00

Update

The ES has dropped 10 points further than I estimated this morning. The May 25 and June 8 lows in the September contract were 1032.75 and 1037.00 respectively. The low today (so far) has been 1037.50.

I think the low for the day has been made. The next development should be a rally of 20-30 points. I had been expecting a low visibly above the 1032.75 level. The fact that the ES has dropped so close to that is a sign of weakness. If the market breaks below 1032.75 then the next support I see is roughly the 1000-10 zone.

Will 1032.75 hold? I just can't tell. I do think that any move above back above 1075 would be very bullish.

I still think this is a bull market, even if the market drops as far as 1000-10. I still expect to see 1300 by the end of the year.

Guesstimates on June 29, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1048-1070. I still think that the 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Another update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis.

A couple of hours ago I noted that the market's failure to climb above the 1080 level (horizontal re dash line) was a sign of weakness. At the time it seemed likely that the consequence would be a shakeout down to 1058 (green oval) to be followed by a strong rally.

In the event the market has held its morning low and has traded in a relatively narrow range all day. It has traded sideways in a 20 point box (blue rectangle) for the better part of three days and has done so after a break that so far has held above the last low at 1037 on June 8 (September contract). Finally there is a sequence of higher lows (rising green dash line) visible today which more often than not is an indication of an impending upside breakout.

All in all, it looks to me like the drop from last Monday's high at 1129.50 is over. At worst a quick shakeout to 1058 will develop early tomorrow. But I think it is more likely that a breakout above the high of the blue rectangle will occur without such a shakeout. I think tomorrow will be a generally bullish day and that the market will not drop more than 5-6 points below whatever level prevails at the pit open.

The next up swing should carry the ES to 1150 and be part of a much more extensive move to 1300.

Update

I thought that the market would rally to 1085 today. But the fact that it wasn't even able to reach Friday's 1079.50 high before breaking once more below Friday's close and today's open is a sign of weakness.

So I think that we have seen the day's high at 1078.50 and that the ES is headed for 1058 before it can stage another rally.

sold one unit at 1073.75

long one unit at 1069.75

Guesstimates on June 28, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1068-1085. I still think that the 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Guesstimates on June 25, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1060-1082. I still think that the 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Update

I expected the ES to rally up close to the 1092 level after establishing the low at 1069.50. Instead the rally stopped at 1081.75, making the rally even shorter than yesterday's (at least so far). That was a sign of weakness. So now I think that the ES is likely to drop to 1060 and establish a higher low there.

sold one unit at 1073.00

Long one unit at 1073.00

Guesstimates on June 24, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1070-1092. The low of this reaction should develop today. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

update

I thought the market would rally early today to 1102 or so, but instead the sellers have been in control from the pit open. I am revising my day session range estimate from 1080-1102 to 1070-1092.

The ES is waiting for the Fed announcement at 2:15 pm today. I think that the market will break right after the news to 1070 and the begin a rally of 20 points or so. This will be the initial stage of a base-building process in the 1070-90 range that will support the next advance which will carry to 1160 or so.

Guesstimates on June 23, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1080-1102. The low of this reaction should develop today. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Quick update

I think we shall see a low tomorrow around the 1084 level and then a strong rally.

Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading for the past week. The horizontal green line is the top of the 1033-1103 trading box in the September contract that was formed following the May 25 low. You can see how it has acted as support during the past week following the upside breakout from the box.

This morning it seemed to me that the complete retracement of the overnight upward bounce from this support line to 1117 was a sign of weakness. So far today the support level has repelled several more breaks, but each rally from this line has been shorter than the last. This makes me think that the market will make it down to 1093 before staging its next big rally (solid purple arrows). But any rally to new day session highs today (i.e., above 1114.50) would negate this bearish pattern and convince me that the market is on its way to 1135-40 and will not break yesterday's low in the meantime.

Guesstimates on June 22, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1093-1113. Support at 1103 has held so far but I now think that the drop from the 1129.50 top be 30-40 points. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour trading in the September e-minis since the May 25 low at 1032.75.

Last week the market broke above the high (horizontal dash green line) of the 70 point trading area/box that it established following the May 25 low. That was a very bullish development and makes it very likely that a move to 1300 and above is underway. The breakout level should now function as strong support.

On the chart I have drawn four blue rectangles which record the market's upward progression through a series of boxes that are about 18 points in height. The bottom of the current box is near 1112. I expect the drop from today's high at 1129.50 to end near there (lower green oval). The next swing upwards should carry to the 1138-40 level which is the midpoint of a 70 point box whose low is 1103. It is also at the upper boundary of the trend channel I have drawn.

Once that target has been reached a bigger reaction is likely to develop. It will probably carry the market down 30-40 points or so.

Guesstimates on June 21, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1115-1130. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Guesstimates on June 18, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1102-1120. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00. An extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin soon.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

sold long unit at 1104.75

Update

Here is an hourly chart showing 24 hour trading in the September e-minis going back past the May 25 low at 1032.75.

The ES traded in a clearly defined, 70 point box for two weeks after the low and is now breaking out to the upside. The second box extends to 1173 and has its midpoint at 1138 (dash blue line).

The drop from this morning's high has been about as big as the last reaction (purple rectangles) and has found support at the breakout point. Even if this support should fail the worst I see on the downside is 1092, which is midpoint support (dotted purple line). Once the market resumes its rally the next stop should be the 1138 level. By the end of the year the ES should trade well above the 1300 level.

long one unit at 1105.50

Guesstimates on June 17, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1105-1120. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00. An extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin soon.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Still stronger than expected

I estimated today's high would be 1112 with a low of 1093. But the market has held its ground above the 1100 level all day so far. I now think the day's high will be 1118 or so but that we also will get a late break that will push the market down to 1105 with a little more weakness to come tomorrow.

This is the start of a very strong uptrend which will carry much further. Even so, the market has advanced for six trading days. Generally speaking, it rests on the seventh and sometimes on the eighth too.

Guesstimates on June 16, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1093-1112. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Very bullish action

I didn't think the market would go more than a point or two above yesterday's high at 1101.75. Instead it has now traded as high at 1107.75. This is the first day in two weeks that the ES has pushed steadily higher all day, and it is occurring as the market is breaking out above the 1103 high of a three week trading range. Moreover, it looks like we shall close today entirely above last week's range, a very bullish development also.

This all is evidence of a market that is gathering strength and I think it is a prelude to much higher prices. Meantime I think the next break will be modest, maybe 10 points or so. I don't expect any correction of more than 20 points until the ES moves into the 1120-40 range.

update

The market has traded a little above the 1098 high of today's range estimate. However I think it is likely to trade at 1080 before it trades at 1110.

Looking further ahead I remain convinced that an up move has begun which will carry to 1300 and higher by the end of the year.

Guesstimates on June 15, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1077-1098. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

A longer term picture

Here is a 10 point box, 3 box reversal chart of the cash S&P 500 going back to May of 2008. It presents a longer term picture of where the market stands and of its possible future movements.

I have drawn a series of 180 point boxes which I think have been controlling the market's movements for the past 20 months. The May low occurred at the bottom of the third box and the April high at its top.

I think the April-May drop was this bull market's midpoint correction. I think that the next upswing will last well into 2011 and carry the market at least to the top of its fourth box and more probably to the top of its fifth box before this bull market is complete. Note that the first leg up from March 2009 at 666 to April 2010 at 1216 carried the S&P up 550 points. Duplicating this move starting from the May low would imply an eventual high near 1590, the 2007 top. A shorter upswing that carries the market up a fibonacci .618 of the initial 550 point swing would carry to 1380, close to the top of the fourth box.

Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis since the May 25 low at 1032 in the September contract. As you can see the market has traded in a range of about 70 points since that low (purple dash rectangle). I think we are in the midst of a breakout move that will carry the market well above the high of this range (1103) and mark the start of a multi-month move to 1300 and above.

Since the ES is now at the top of this big trading area I think it likely that a break to a higher low will begin from the green oval target area (1100-1106). This break should be about as big as the biggest reaction on the way up from the early June low, about 25 points (purple rectangles). Once this correction is complete I expect to see the ES move to the top of the third box in a stack of 35 points boxes (blue rectangles).

Guesstimates on June 14, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1080-1102 for the September contract. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Da Bears

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".

Guesstimates on June 11, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1065-1087 for the September contract. The 1036.75 low on May 25 ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Late update

I think today's rally has very bullish implications. It has broken the pattern of 35 point reactions established during the last six weeks. The market has moved higher, retracing all of yesterday's break, without any apparent reason. Against the backdrop provided by the very bearish attitude of the public towards stocks I think this action means the market is headed much higher from here.

On the five point box point and figure chart you see above I have counted across the very well defined base area that has formed during the past 4 days (horizontal green line). This count yields an upside target of 1140. Attaining the 1140 level would represent a breakout from the much bigger base (which "counts" to well above 1300) that began near the May 25 low. It would also carry the market well above the descending trend line I have drawn. Today's activity leads me to believe that a breakout from this "up to 1140" base is underway. Such a breakout means that much higher prices (to and above 1300) will be seen during the next six months.

Very bullish action

The September contract is now the most active ES contract.

After a negative employment claims number came out at 8:30 the market dropped 7 points and then began an uncorrected rally to 1071 (so far). This is almost a complete retracement of yesterday's drop and comes after negative news (no positive news of significance has come out as far as I can tell). Such action is very bullish and makes me think my range estimate of 1030-65 for the September contract is way off base.

So now I am thinking in terms of a 1060-85 range for today. Reaching 1085 would be a breakout above yesterday's high and would also break the pattern of 30-40 point reactions. Such action would cause me to abandon my downside target of 1000-20. It would mean that the move to 1300 and higher has begun.

Guesstimates on June 10, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: At the pit open today the September contract moves to the top step. Today's range estimate is 1030-1065 for the September contract. I still think the market will drop into the 1000-1020 range before an extended rally starts. But strength above the 1080 level will mean that the rally to 1300 is underway and that the 1036.75 low ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Update

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading since the May 13 high at 1174. I have drawn blue rectangles around several corrective moves that have occurred since then. All measure between 30 and 40 points. The rally from yesterday's low at 1041 has so far carried 36 points and 40 points would put the ES at 1081.

Any strength above the 1081 level would break this rhythm of corrective moves and tell me that the drop from the April 26 top at 1216 ended at 1037 on May 25. Until that happens I am going to stick with my view that slightly lower lows lie ahead. Another 30-40 point box below yesterday's low would have its low in the 1001-1011 range. That is the worst I see on the downside before a move to 1300 begins.

Guesstimates on June 9, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1055-1080. I still think the market will drop into the 1000-1020 range before an extended rally starts. But strength above the 1080 level will mean that the rally to 1300 is underway and that the 1036.75 low ended the drop from 1216. I expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Update

Today's estimated range is 1035-60. So far the market has gotten to within 2 points of the estimated high and I expect we shall see prints at or below the estimated low by the close today. I still think a low will develop in the 1000-1020 range within the next couple of days. After that I think the market will rally for the rest of the year.

Guesstimates on June 8, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1035-1060. I think the market will drop into the 1000-1020 range before an extended rally starts. I still expect to see the 1300 level by the end of the year.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market broke decisively below 122 support Friday but I think it is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.

Update

Here is a five point box, three box reversal chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. I had thought that 1055 would be today's day session low. But the market traded below the 1050 level late this afternoon. That makes it likely that 1036.75 was not the end of the correction. I now think we shall see the low in the 1000-1020 range (green oval), near the lower parallel trend channel I have drawn on the chart.

I still think this is a reaction in a bull market. If so the ES should move well above the 1300 level by the end of the year.

Blogspot

Blogspot was down all day until just a few minutes ago - I just posted the Guesstimate I had prepared at 8:30 am this morning.

However, I was able to send my Tweets to this blog and the blog was accessible in a "read only" mode all day. So if you don't see my guesstimate you should check the Tweets on the right hand side of the blog - they may have useful information if Blogger is down.

Guesstimates on June 7, 2010 - Better late than never

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1055-1080. The market shows signs of having made a higher low at 1052 last night. Confirmation would come on strength above the 1080 level. I still think the low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. A move to 1300 is underway and the up and down swings we are seeing are part of an extended base building process.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market broke decisively below 122 support Friday but I think it is scraping bottom. Downside should be limited to 118.00 and then an extended move into the 135-40 zone should begin.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

July Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.