Wednesday, June 23, 2010

update

I thought the market would rally early today to 1102 or so, but instead the sellers have been in control from the pit open. I am revising my day session range estimate from 1080-1102 to 1070-1092.

The ES is waiting for the Fed announcement at 2:15 pm today. I think that the market will break right after the news to 1070 and the begin a rally of 20 points or so. This will be the initial stage of a base-building process in the 1070-90 range that will support the next advance which will carry to 1160 or so.

9 comments:

Naveedah said...

Day support is 1094. Short term support is at 1089/1084 and then 1077/1072. Day resistance is 1097. ES_F

Obliged !
Stay safe and live long!

Day Trader said...

Your original range will turn out to be right. I believe the low today will be the bottom of this sell-off.

Kishore said...

The new housing report, drop of 33%, just was not bad enough for the market to rally. Tomorrow's Jobless Claims may be worse and the market should celebrate. If not tomorrow, the Consumer Sentiment report on Friday should do it.

For how long, can the Fed facilitate the banks to steal from those who need the money to spend? For how long can the economy "improve" with the banks stashing the stolen cash or sticking it into sick-looking stick rallies?

This is a lawless market by the corrupt and for the corrupt. Law-abiding citizens or believers of the principles of TA can play, long or short, at the risk of losing it all!

We have the conflicting forces of bad economy due to lack of demand or lack of money to spend, and the numerous western governments hell bent of monitizing an otherwise unmanageable debt. Who will win??

Adsense said...

looks like point 27 on the hourly dow chart , so at a minimum we test the may lows and or break them . the 2 yr cycle is turning down . the subcycles call for a low in early to mid july yet the 2 yr cycle peak is early august .
i am guessing we are now in a down cycle into may 2011 . i have givin this market a bullish bias with the intent on an august high how ever im now revising my outlook
to lower prices . the nov 2009 lows on the dow are key to a break down . the objective is 8000 on the dow by november 2010 which would be a similar move from the 414 calander day up move which took place from oct 25 1960 to dec 13 1961 . if you overlay a monthly chart from march 2009 to date you will see the similarities .
im not end of the world bearish by anymeans . i just see to many correlations and bearish divergences which imply we should be correcting the uptrend from march 2009 to date .
it would be in everyones intrest to at the least hedge yourselves
in case this market does indeed break lower .
joe

Chad said...

Kishore, I agree with you and my biggest worry now is not only making money for my fund but getting those funds out before the government lets the final shoe drop which is to freeze and then reset the system with some 1933 trick. The banks as you know do not have to mark anything to market and it didnt work !

This is beyond belief...

E said...

Step by step, opportunities every day.

Great dialog here, with sharing of ideas and focus on reasons rather than personalities lately.

Truly a nice forum, much appreciated.

This pb is still testing the 50% of the 37 / 29.5 swing so jury still out in my opinion.

Manipulation is assumed as m.o. of the Boyz.

Stay nimble.

Thanks for your insights Mr Futia.

Naveedah said...

Day support is 1094. Short term support is at1089/1084 and then 1077/1072. Day resistance is 1097. Short term resistance is 1106/1108/1111 and then 1119 was in my mind before the opening.
The market remained within your first guess estimates.Why i am feeling its touching the bottom1040-1045 once again in near future.
When everything gets scary,your blogs give us insight to fix.
Thanks with lots many wishes for you and your loved ones.

Win said...

Naveedah,

You the man. You're feeling it because it could happen.

Naveedah said...

Win,
I am a woman !So the woman's fears are:
There had been an expectation heading in on Mon that stocks could lift higher given the combination of: 1) the impressive 2.3% rally + 200day break-out of 6/15, 2) some Q-end buying (esp. given we are on track to be down ~6.5% this Q, the worst qtrly showing since Q1:09); 3) China’s “game changing” currency announcement from Sat. However, there just hasn’t been a lot of buying demand and Tues’ action is being seen as a big set-back.
Below 1077/1072, bears take the agenda looking to retest the 1045- 1041 lows.
So grateful to Dr.Carl's work,my ultimate resource.