Thursday, June 10, 2010

Very bullish action

The September contract is now the most active ES contract.

After a negative employment claims number came out at 8:30 the market dropped 7 points and then began an uncorrected rally to 1071 (so far). This is almost a complete retracement of yesterday's drop and comes after negative news (no positive news of significance has come out as far as I can tell). Such action is very bullish and makes me think my range estimate of 1030-65 for the September contract is way off base.

So now I am thinking in terms of a 1060-85 range for today. Reaching 1085 would be a breakout above yesterday's high and would also break the pattern of 30-40 point reactions. Such action would cause me to abandon my downside target of 1000-20. It would mean that the move to 1300 and higher has begun.

9 comments:

John said...

Watch the action in GS and AAPL...forget the fakeout buy the futures nonsense.

extrader said...

Consider going long around 1068-1070 area, as today looks like an UP day!

ex

janet said...

Thanks, greatly appreciated!

John said...

No doubt today is an upday. However, the action to me continues to look like a rally in a bear market -- not a new move up.

angel* said...

Carl is probably the only person who is still bullish in the market when almost everyone I know is dead bearish. And I think Carl is going to be right again! AMAZING! :)

Naveedah said...

Thanks for the help!
So Obliged!

Win said...

Carl,
You are correct. I just came to your blog to post these thoughts and saw that you had pre-empted me. I think is the real deal. We will likely see some basing tomorrow, but that could be the last buy opp. We will hit USD resistance tonight and USD will bottom and rise tomorrow; downside on SP tomorrow may be limited to 1065 or so. I will be a swing buyer tomorrow.

Yāvar said...

I think there is still 50% chance of going lower than 1040 (probably tomorrow). Anyway, next week will be a bullish week.

waw4 said...

Stalled for the moment right at your downtrend line!