Tuesday, June 29, 2010


The ES has dropped 10 points further than I estimated this morning. The May 25 and June 8 lows in the September contract were 1032.75 and 1037.00 respectively. The low today (so far) has been 1037.50.

I think the low for the day has been made. The next development should be a rally of 20-30 points. I had been expecting a low visibly above the 1032.75 level. The fact that the ES has dropped so close to that is a sign of weakness. If the market breaks below 1032.75 then the next support I see is roughly the 1000-10 zone.

Will 1032.75 hold? I just can't tell. I do think that any move above back above 1075 would be very bullish.

I still think this is a bull market, even if the market drops as far as 1000-10. I still expect to see 1300 by the end of the year.


Aar said...

I think the market is going to go down (or at least will not go up) until Friday's job report. Friday, we will get to see the real direction of this market. My guess is market this week is factoring in a bad job report due on Friday. So there is good chance it will head back up despite bad report starting Friday. My guesstimate bottom will be between 1010 and 1020. Good or bad I went long today though. good luck to all

Thanks for your hard work!

Win said...

Nice post, Aar. I am also long as of ES 1072 and went long the Q's a few minutes ago. For better or worse.

Look at Copper and Oil. Are they at the same levels as they were at the early June bottom?

medi said...


What do you say about the 50 and 200 moving averages that will cross soon. only 10 points difference and if you calculate it it seems almost impossible that a cross will not happen (maybe will stay horizontal to each other in the best case scenario).



Naveedah said...

As usual ,I was making gains on long side then got trapped but I went out safe.
I was convinced to see 1040-45 and still tried to go long.
Where can I find words to thank you for all updates to help us so much!
I am going to Spain for a week to be off the mkt .

Stay Safe And Live Long as You are the biggest support for me.

Naveedah said...

people’s eyes are fixated on the ~1040 level (we bounced at 1042.50 this morning); selling pressure has dried up some as we hold the low 1040s and there is some covering occurring. However, no one is really stepping in to buy this tape (larger long-onlys are still on the sidelines). The big catalysts to watch: 1) ECB 3-month tender Wed – per the FT, consensus seems to be that about €220bn, or half of the €442bn 12-month LTRO liquidity, will stay with the ECB. The troublesome level looks to be if more than €300bn is rolled into the three-month. A ‘good result’ is rather more contentious; less than €150bn or less than €250bn (FT); 2) ECB 12 month expiry on Thurs (the key will be to watch the subscription levels at the 3-month on Wed to see how much is being rolled back into ECB); 3) Spain debt sale - 3 billion euro auction of Spain five-year debt on Thursday (Reuters); 4) China’s PMIs out Wed night/Thurs morning ET; 5) US jobs on Fri.