Thursday, June 17, 2010


Here is an hourly chart showing 24 hour trading in the September e-minis going back past the May 25 low at 1032.75.

The ES traded in a clearly defined, 70 point box for two weeks after the low and is now breaking out to the upside. The second box extends to 1173 and has its midpoint at 1138 (dash blue line).

The drop from this morning's high has been about as big as the last reaction (purple rectangles) and has found support at the breakout point. Even if this support should fail the worst I see on the downside is 1092, which is midpoint support (dotted purple line). Once the market resumes its rally the next stop should be the 1138 level. By the end of the year the ES should trade well above the 1300 level.


Day Trader said...


Very much appreciate your work.

I am pretty much in full agreement with your levels. If the 1117 area can break, 1138-1140 is the next target.

1092 is also my level should any bigger sell-off occur.

The trend is definitely back in favor of the bullish perspective for now.

Harry said...

It would appear that there is a strong relationship between sentiment and frequency of comments on your site and subsequent market direction. Do you take this into account when you trade / analyse the market Carl?

tempo said...

Thanks again for the update. IMO until the BP blowout well is capped, there is more downside than upside in equities.

nwaldman said...

The market "should" be breaking through resistance (1120-1125 mid-channel), but it isn't and it hasn't. I'm willing to be patient for another two days of trading (since there is a "relaxation period); but I am also examining Terry Laundry's "collapsing T" argument, which seems to have merit, which would suggest we are at a top for at least a few weeks.

This may be too much to ask, but I am interested in your assessment of said "T-Theory" as applied to the market this point in time. (Indeed, no one can deny structural deficiencies in the economy--but the market is an "irrational" creature to some degree.)

Thank you for your insights and your uncanny ability to see mathematical patterns in seeming random events.

Naveedah said...

The trend is consistent all week,may 24/25 and june8 1040--1050test is viewed as bottom.This rally reflects violent short covering w/o alot of "real", "long-only", or high
conviction outright buying occurring;
the tone of the tape has improved over the last1.5 wks.
Performance anxiety is setting in,esp.coming off the poor May numbers and will prob. become more acute into Q-end.
Thank you Sir for this huge support.

VS said...

S&P has decisively shown strength and now it is very likely to see a move to 25-45 before some comeback for bears. I am still not comfortable with the long side and therefore prefer to remain on sideline looking for some intra day movements if I can. 1125 remains a very strong resistance area for me.

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
i can see a very small degree 60 min 3 peaks domed house nearish completion , i would think the dow would have a tough time onces it breaks above 10500

Toan said...

Still trying to think how a call of 1300 on SPX is CONTRARIAN. Most people are bullish.