Monday, June 14, 2010


Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis since the May 25 low at 1032 in the September contract. As you can see the market has traded in a range of about 70 points since that low (purple dash rectangle). I think we are in the midst of a breakout move that will carry the market well above the high of this range (1103) and mark the start of a multi-month move to 1300 and above.

Since the ES is now at the top of this big trading area I think it likely that a break to a higher low will begin from the green oval target area (1100-1106). This break should be about as big as the biggest reaction on the way up from the early June low, about 25 points (purple rectangles). Once this correction is complete I expect to see the ES move to the top of the third box in a stack of 35 points boxes (blue rectangles).

1 comment:

Narayana said...

Carl, what do you expect will support such a breakout if we have not seen a demand shock yet?