Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Update

Here is a 60 minute bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading for the past week. The horizontal green line is the top of the 1033-1103 trading box in the September contract that was formed following the May 25 low. You can see how it has acted as support during the past week following the upside breakout from the box.

This morning it seemed to me that the complete retracement of the overnight upward bounce from this support line to 1117 was a sign of weakness. So far today the support level has repelled several more breaks, but each rally from this line has been shorter than the last. This makes me think that the market will make it down to 1093 before staging its next big rally (solid purple arrows). But any rally to new day session highs today (i.e., above 1114.50) would negate this bearish pattern and convince me that the market is on its way to 1135-40 and will not break yesterday's low in the meantime.

3 comments:

Market Karma said...

Carl,, whats the downside target on the 10y bond yield? CF

Naveedah said...

Thank you,Sir
I shorted @1114 hoping for 1093.so happy to rather have exact 1093.Your grace to give a wonderful trading day!
Stay safe and Live Long happy,rich life with your loved ones.
We all need you,too Sir!

Kishore said...

Carl, your guesstimates for the day were perfect.

Looks like that the HFT computers are "reading" your blog!

Rally or no rally, it is time to step aside and wait patiently for the next shorting opportunity.