Monday, June 07, 2010

Update


Here is a five point box, three box reversal chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. I had thought that 1055 would be today's day session low. But the market traded below the 1050 level late this afternoon. That makes it likely that 1036.75 was not the end of the correction. I now think we shall see the low in the 1000-1020 range (green oval), near the lower parallel trend channel I have drawn on the chart.

I still think this is a reaction in a bull market. If so the ES should move well above the 1300 level by the end of the year.

14 comments:

extrader said...

I am looking for 1000 test on SPX!

yin said...

if it breaks 1000 , is there a contingent projection ?

Urban said...

Thanks Carl. I think it would very helpful to know what you would need to see to reconsider your bullish posture.

Naveedah said...

Thank you so much for this so valuable blog,strong weakness and selling pressure @1063,1063.50 made me stay out of trade.
1000 is justified now.
What a great HELP you are to us!
Live long as we need you so much,still alot to learn.
Blessings sir!

janet said...

Good to have you back, I was worried about you. What if any effect do you think this horrendous oil spill will have on the markets?? I live in S. Florida and we are VERY concerned about this ecological disaster.

VS said...

1025-20 is a good potential support area but instead of thinking of going long there I would treat that zone as a potential area for coving bulk of the shorts.

I am intrigued by the continuing bullish posture even though the markets are making lower lows and lower highs. At best such bullish postures can keep one out of a short trade but at worst it can end up getting one into a wrong trade in bottom picking mode with disastrous consequences.

I am sure ES will see 1300 one day but I am pretty sure there will be enough bullish signals before that occurs and allowing traders to switch on long side. Meanwhile, short seems to be the play and path of least resistance.

vs-trader.blogspot.com

Hannah said...

Always interested, Thanks.

volcanik said...

ES is not seeing 1300 anytime this year Carl. There are 6 months left, and a boat load of problems in the world. The EURO is going to be worth the same as the dollar, then even less, until it is dissolved. More countries to default. This is just the beginning.

Kishore said...

According to Daily Worden Reports, all trends, Primary, Intermediate, Sub-Intermediate and Short-Term, as per his definitions, on daily charts, for all major indexes of Dow Jones, SP-500, Nasdaq Composite, NDX-100, are down.

All of the above will have to change before 1300 can materialize. Why speculate? Play the trend!

Chad said...

This market is so oversold and the action is looking like the Bots are going to crash this thing up.
I got out of all my short positions and will get long
to 1150.

The small investor does not have a chance and will get whip sawed until they all leave the market place for good.

dcatlowpj said...

Well I think that moving the time-frame of your 1300 achievement level is a smart move. We all need to now look for horrendous fear, with everyone bailing to go long. There may be short covering rallies which will be fake-outs - - so, in effect, we should all be looking for price action shake-outs only then short again.

monkeypicks said...

I cannot for the life of me figure out how you think oil is going to 50 but think the ES is going to 1300. There is something seriously wrong with a person that thinks that correlation makes any sense. Oil going to 50 is deflationary and deflation means lower stock prices. And even though the market keeps going lower and lower you still keep with your same scenarios trying to pick lower bottom after lower bottom. Keep your head up because a few years down the road you will eventually be right.

Atrader said...

moneypicks..."stupid news....fundamental news" makes no money.

" Technical analysis via indicators" makes no money..but reading charts does and it takes 15,000 hours plus to become good and see the future.

The currencies and the Indices ( ES, YM, NQ, TF) are the most controlled markets out there.

Yes oil 50 is at $90 and if the DX falls into Aug 10 we should get the retrace up, but oil will get to $52-48 by Dec 2010 / Jan 2011.

We either see double bottom at 1036or 1011-1004 and then zoom up to 1240-1307.25 by Aug 10 2010.

Then with the DX at 78/79 by Aug 10 2010 and ES at 1307.25 ( Max) and oil at $86-90 we then see the DX move to 95/96 by Jan -June 2011 with all crashing including the indices.

Euro, SF, CAD, BP should have good retraces if my DX ( us index) scenario is correct.

Gold should be at $1380 by aug 10, silver at 21/22 and then drop to $850-750 and $10-8 respectively in Jan-June 2011.

Once DX hits 95-96 by Jan 2011 latest June 2011 I see it heading to 41 by late 2012 early 2013.

Once gold, silver hits these lows...load up. ES should by June 2011 be at 850/875 area....load up for 2012-2014 is zoom up to 3,600/3,800.

TSE index will be at 22-24,000 come 2014 from a low of 9,000-7,800to come by June 2011.

CAD will be at 1.21-1.57 by 2012 and as the DX tests the low area 3 times ( 41 ) by 2014....then load up on DX as it is going to 122-165 or higher from 2014-2019. Yen high in 2012, BP high 2012 AUD hi 2012...same 3 test move as CAD by 2014.

Coffee will be at highs of 275-316 come May 2011. Wheat, corn, beans will have good retracements into 1st half of 2011. Wheat should move to $8.37 in 2011 from low to be reached in June 2010.

OJ should fall to 60-62 by Dec 2010and zoom up to 120-140 by March/May 2011.

Money is much easier made trading real commodities than indices.

Sugar move to $19-22 by Aug 2010 then final low into 2011 at $8-11.

"Nothing is new under the sun."

Trade of the decade (2010-2020) is the US index ( DX). 2nd choice is short gold, silver after 2014 into 2016/2017.3rd choice short BP, CAD, Yen, Euro, AUD from 2014-2019.

Best trade 20 year trade- Buy Japan index in 2012-2016 and ride the rocket after 2018 till 2025. 2nd choice is BSE index ( India).

"After the famine comes the feast.'

and "After the feast prepare for the faminie."

E said...

Obviously Mr Futia is capable of taking care of himself...

I still feel compelled to ask: MP why the personal attack on his character?

We are guests in his room and are offered the opportunity to express our opinions about the market...

Mr Futia's market opinions may differ from mine at times...but I respect a market professional who has been right more than wrong, and continues to hold his head up as you suggest, even under fire from snipers on the sidelines.

Do you have a website where we may go to see your daily predictions?