Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Guesstimates on June 30, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1030-1055. I expect a rally of 25-35 points from yesterday's low at 1030.25. After that a further drop to 1010 or so is likely. In the meantime any strength above 1075 would mean that the low of the move down from 1216 has been seen and that a new up leg in the bull market has begun.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Rajath said...

and in case 1030 breaks, you would come out and say that 1010 is coming without any bounce.. you have been revising your estimates twice a day.. smart play sir

Carl Futia said...

When the facts change I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

Rajath said...

oh well, in that case it would be better to suggest your conviction on the calls in terms of percentages.

eg: a bounce from 1030
probability: 50%

i say this because you expected only a 10-15pt correction from 1120 levels and have been revising it 10 points downwards almost everyday. what is the point in talking about 1300 if you are changing your mind and targets so frequently? i don't get it.. and i am sure nobody else does either!

pimaCanyon said...


That's a pretty bold statement: "i am sure nobody else does either!" Sounds like you would give 100 percent odds that that statement would be true. Sorry pal, you're wrong, because I get it, and I would give 100 percent odds that I am not the only one who does.

catherine said...

It's always the same on this blog.
Great at interday ranges.
Always a bull.
Makes excellent forecasts when the market is going up.
Makes some good forecasts on other non spx things.
Continues to be bullish all the way down however far the market goes down. (Same in 2008 all the way)
I know this and use the information here for what it is and accept the bias.
Most people have one , just Carls is a bit more extreme.

Kishore said...

Carl, your bullish outlook probably comes from very long term charts. But very long term outlooks are not so useful, and often wrong, for short-term trading. Let us not forget that trends percolate from lower time frames to upper time frames. So, why even bother making very long term projections??

Kishore said...

Very long projections are equivalent to having a perma-bias which can reduce clarity of here and now and clouds up decision making for short-term trading, unless, of course, we are engaged in an academic exercise of on long-term calling of bottoms and tops and not actual trading.

Let us face it, no one can go long for 1300 without a stop-loss of at least 100 or more. Moreover, is this blog meant for those who trade only once a year??

slip5ham said...

Well put Pima, your bet would pay off because I too "get it".

cracker80 said...

Raj - it's obvious you're not a trader. See, traders read the market and adjust when they think their forecast or prediction proves to be wrong.

Everyone can predict. Some predict off of BS while others predict off of convincing logic. And most of the time they are WRONG. Even Carl.

The key is reading the market and making money and knowing when to adjust. That's how a trader operates.

Kishore said...

Is this a mutual admiration club or a forum for objective discussion, with the objective of profit by short-term trading?

Carl Futia said...


I offer the same response as I did the last time you made a similar comment:

I recall that shortly afterward you were max short at 1113.

I see a pattern.


Aar said...


These blogs are no different from the books we buy in book stores. We like the book if we agree with it, and not like it if we disagree with the content. But remember guys this is a free service Carl is providing here. If you don't like it, just go away, but do not discourage or RIDICULE the guy. Some of us have been around here long enough to know that Carl has made some excellent calls going against popular analysis. I have emphasized on this several times to be more objective with your commentary. Basically instead of saying "Hey Carl, you said this, and this is what happened, hehehe", just say "Hey Carl, this is what I think is going to happen". But if you can't resist the temptation to be sarcastic, first start your blog and see how many people show up. It takes guts to do what Carl is doing here. Least you can do is respect that aspect of it.



rational_trader said...

If you think you can do better, why don't you start a blog yourself ? It's always much easier to ridicule others than doing something right. If you can be right 55% of the time, than you have an edge and will make a fortune.

brea said...

rational_trader EXACTLY!!!
everybody's a critic and has nothing else to offer! he's just not making enough free money for the cry babys. there are many free blog sights. if you don't like the mans opinion, state your expectations for the mrkt as concisely as carl does, or....find a free sight that agrees w/ "your" prognosis.
i'm grateful for his opinion and it serves me as a teaching tool as well.
thank you carl, please continue!!

pimaCanyon said...

Catherine, your comment re Carl always being a bull appears to be suggesting that he shouldn't always be a bull. That is, you are saying that Carl is always a bull even when we're in a bear market and he shouldn't be.

First of all, I would say that your comment is not entirely correct. Long term, yes, Carl does appear to have a bullish bias. But short term, not so. There have been many times where Carl has said he expects the market to move down to a lower low than the most recent low. So short term Carl is sometimes bearish.

Regarding his long term bullish bias, maybe he's just playing the odds. Over time, doesn't the market spend more time going up than going down?

Moreover, as Carl has said, the point of these market forecasts is not to be "right", it's to make a profit. During 2008, a very bearish year for the markets, Carl's posted trades made over 80 percent profit. So you might say, hey, this guy got it wrong for a whole year for crying out loud, continued to be bullish as the market continued making lower lows. But so what? He made a lot of money that year and profit is the name of the game here. Being right is for academics.

yrichter said...


Based on today's trading thus far, do you still expect we'll see close to 1055 before turning downward or do you think we've seen the day's high already? Thanks,

Isaac Richter