Friday, July 25, 2008

Guesstimates on July 25, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: Support is still at 1239 while resistance above the market is at 1265. I think the market is in the early stages of a rally which will carry it to 1500 over the next several months. 

QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50.  During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.    

TLT - September Bonds: The trend has turned downward once more and the bonds are headed for 109. Resistance above the market is at 116-00. 

September 10 Year Notes: The trend has turned downward and the notes are headed for 108. Resistance above the market is at 115-00. 

Euro-US Dollar: The trend has turned downward in the euro and I think the market is headed for 135. 

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 112.00 is now underway.  Support is at 105.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – September Crude: Crude broke below 133 support so I think that it is now headed for 100. The 133 level is now resistance. 

GLD - August Gold: Gold broke below 935 support yesterday so now I think it is headed for 750.   

SLV - September Silver: Silver is still holding support at 1750 but a break below there will mean that the market is headed for 1250. 

Google: The 460-80 range is good support and I expect the market to hold there and begin a move which will carry it over 750. 


sandy allred said...

Excellent forecasting for the 1291 turn and the 40 point break! Amazing...

Unknown said...

Carl, at what point would you change your box on the 60 min to 1200.75 and 1236 (ES levels)? This is the box formed on 7/15.

Anonymous said...

so futia dreamt dollar at 1.65 euro 2 weeks ago. And now he wakes up & says it goes down to 1.35.
Now everyone should be able to change if circumstances change but what kind of confidence one would have of his forecasts? A coin toss is a better deal, if you ask me.jpsvpa

Anonymous said...

Dear jpsvpa:

I am asking you, please provide YOUR forecasts as well!

At least Carl has the balls to post his views, all you do, sir, is be critical AFTER the fact ... I am assuming that you are not making any money trading, otherwise you be more open minded.

Rick B.

Anonymous said...


I am sorry, but you are Monday morning quarterbacking, and apparently don't understand what technical analysis is all about. Technical analysis is good for finding lines in the sand, and as more data comes in, one MUST be allowed to reconsider a position and change it. To do otherwise would be stupid.

You say one should be able to change, then criticize him for changing. It is ok to BE wrong, but NOT ok to STAY wrong. Those who are the latter is who you should save your coins for.

Another note on price targets. If the Euro gets to 1.62 instead of 1.65, you consider that a bust? Is everything so black and white? How about if that call was made from 1.30?

Those who don't understand this form of analysis are always the most vocal critics.