Guesstimates on November 28, 2008

Today's S&P trading ends at 1:15 pm Eastern time.

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think a rally to 1000 is underway.  The Next upside target is 925. Support is at 840.

QQQ: The 25-26 zone is strong support and the Q’s have started a rally to 34.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are showing much more strength than is apparent in the cash market. In any case the 130 level is short term resistance, and the market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes took out their 2008 high at 120 decisively and will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.  

GLD - December Gold: The shorter term trend is gold has turned upward and should continue 850-60. After that I expect the market to begin a drop to 600.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Out

I just sold my two long units at 862.00.  I think that today's pre-holiday trading will start to slow down now and I do not think today will be a big day in either direction.

Added

I just bought a second e-mini unit at 851.00.

Long

I just bought one e-mini unit at 845.50

Guesstimates on November 26, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think a rally to 1000 is underway.  The market should hold the 825 level today but if it doesn’t it will be headed down to 750 or so. .

QQQ: The 25-26 zone is strong support and the Q’s have started a rally to 34.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are showing much more strength than is apparent in the cash market. In any case the 130 level is short term resistance, and the market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes took out their 2008 high at 120 decisively and will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.  

GLD - December Gold: The shorter term trend is gold has turned upward and should continue 850-60. After that I expect the market to begin a drop to 600.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Out

I thought this market would easily make it back up to 870, but instead we got a fast break from 861 so I just stopped myself out at 849.00.

Added

I just bought a second unit at 852.00

Long Again

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 846.00.

Out

I had expected the market to go straight up after I bought my second unit but instead we have seen some aggressive selling. So I am out of all my longs at 841.50. 

Added

I just bought a second e-mini unit at 850.50, making be long two at an average of 847.00.

Long Again

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 843.50.

Out

I just sold my long unit at 852.25.  I am still very bullish and this looks like a normal reaction in an uptrend, so I shall be looking for another chance to get long today. 

Long

I just bought one e-mini unit at 863.75.  I am betting that we have seen the day's low. 

Guesstimates on November 25, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think a rally to 1000 is underway.  Support today stands at 840.

QQQ: The 25-26 zone is strong support and the Q’s have started a rally to 34.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are showing much more strength than is apparent in the cash market. In any case the 130 level is short term resistance, and the market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes took out their 2008 high at 120 decisively and will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: Crude broke below 50.00 and the 47.00 level represents a drop of $100 from the July top four months ago. My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.  

GLD - December Gold: The shorter term trend is gold has turned upward and should continue 850-60. After that I expect the market to begin a drop to 600.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Out

I just sold my two long units at 859.50 after the market put in a 5 minute bar with a very high 100k contracts traded. I think this uptrend has a lot further to go but I also think that an 80 point range for the day is about enough.

Added

I just bought a second unit at 841.50. I expect the market to go straight up from here but if it doesn't I will get out. 

Long Again

So far the market doesn't want to react much so I just repurchased a single unit of the e-minis at 838.

Out

I just sold my long unit at 834.50. I am still very bullish but this market has rallied 100 points, about 15%,  in only three trading hours. I expect to get long again later today. 

Long

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 816.00.

Guesstimates on November 24, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think a rally to 1000 is underway.  Support today stands at 785.

QQQ: The 25-26 zone is strong support and the Q’s have started a rally to 34.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are showing much more strength than is apparent in the cash market. In any case the 130 level is short term resistance, and the market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes took out their 2008 high at 120 decisively and will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: Crude broke below 50.00 and the 47.00 level represents a drop of $100 from the July top four months ago. My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.  

GLD - December Gold: The shorter term trend is gold has turned upward and should continue 850-60. After that I expect the market to begin a drop to 600.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Imminent Low

Here is today's front page of The New York Times. The emotional tenor of the headline and the article is visibly more fearful than yesterday's. Typically headlines like these are seen within a day or two of an important low. I think this one will be no exception to the rule. 

Guesstimates on November 21, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think we shall see a 735 print in the e-minis today but then the market should begin a strong rally which will carry it up to the 1000 level.

QQQ: The 25-26 zone is strong support and the Q’s should soon begin a rally to 34. TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are acting strangely, showing much more strength than is apparent in the cash market. In any case the 130 level is short term resistance, and the market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes took out their 2008 high at 120 decisively yesterday and will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: Crude broke below 50.00 and the 47.00 level represents a drop of $100 from the July top four months ago. My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.  

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is now in the 790-800 zone.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google has nearly reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

A Look Back at 1981

Back in 1981 the U.S. Treasury long bond yielded more than 15% while the Dow's yield was around 6%. I used to amuse my friends by telling them that sometime after the year 2000, once the long term interest rate cycle bottomed, that the long bond would yield less than the Dow.

Today the long bond is yielding less than 3.70% while the Dow's yield is above the 4.25% level. I never expected being right would be so painful!

U-turn Ahead

A few minutes ago the S&P's hit 752, having taken out the October 2002 low at 767.50.  I think this market will pull a U-turn tomorrow and head above the 820 level.

Out

I just sold my longs at 794.50.  I still think this market will head up later today.

Added

I just bought a second e-mini unit at 803.00, making me long two units at an average of 800.50.

Long again

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 797.00.

Out

I just sold my two long units at 818.25 on the rally to the last low of 817. I am still very bullish on this market but I think this advance will be a more gradual one that the previous 2-day-wonder rallies we have seen.  I expect to get long again on a break of 20 points or so. 

Added

I just bought a second unit of the e-minis at 801.00, making be long two units at an average of 796.00.

Long

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 790.75. I don't think we'll see the market below 780 for the rest of the day. 

Up

The rally from the day's low at 774.25 now shows higher volume than the decline into the low during the first 45 minutes of the floor session. I think this means that the low at 774.25 will hold and that the market is headed up at least to the 1000 level. 

On the Front Page

Here is an image of the front page of today's New York Times. The last time the stock market was the subject of a bearish headline in the Times was October 10, 2008. During the following two trading days the S&P rallied more than 200 points. 

Guesstimates on November 20, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The e-minis should make it down to 775 before the next rally to 1050 starts. Any strength above 840 will mean that the rally is underway.

QQQ: It looks like the Q’s will drop to 25.50 and then rally to 34.00

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds have rallied to their September highs and will probably trade at 124-16 before a substantial drop begins.

December 10 Year Notes: The 119-120 zone is very strong resistance and I think the market will resume its downtrend from here.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resistance above the market stands at 62.00.

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google is headed for 250-260.

Looking for 775

The market broke below what I thought would be support at 840 this morning. I think it will reach 775 or so and then begin a rally back above the 1000 level.  The October 2002 low was 767.50 in the futures while the March 2003 low was 788.50. 

Guesstimates on November 19, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  Yesterday’s late rally turned the short term trend upward and it will remain so provided support near 840 holds. Upside target is 1050.  

QQQ: It looks like the Q’s are headed up to 33.00.

TLT - December Bonds: The 121-122 zone is very strong resistance and I think the market will resume its longer term downtrend from there.  

December 10 Year Notes: The 119-120 zone is very strong resistance and I think the market will resume its downtrend from there.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resistance above the market stands at 62.00.

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google is now headed for 250-260.

Bullish action

Today's late rally was the biggest rally since the high at 918 on November 14. This together that it carried a bit above this morning's high at 866 makes me think that the market is now headed for 1000. If I am right about this then tomorrow the e-minis should hold above 840. 

Out

I just sold my single long unit at 850 on a small rally after the market had dipped below that level. The fact that the gains of the day couldn't be held makes me think we are now headed down from here. 

Long

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 856.50.  I think the market will stay above 849 if indeed it is going higher. 

Added later: thanks to all who pointed out the erroneous handle of 9 when it should have been 8!

Day's trend is now upward

The market has finished the first hour of trading today with a strong rally over the 860 level.  I think this means that the early morning low at 829.25 will hold and that the e-minis are now headed up to the 950 level. 

Guesstimates on November 18, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s are probably headed down to 790, but strength today above the 850 level would change my mind about that.

QQQ: It looks like the Q’s are headed for 27.50 an then up to 33.00.

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resistance above the market stands at 65.00.

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google is now headed for 250-260.

Going Down

Today's weak close after what looked like a high volume rally is a bearish development. I think it means that the e-minis are headed below the 800 level.

Out

I just sold my long at 872.25.  If we can close up on the day I will be bullish going into tomorrow.

Long

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 872.50.  I think this market is going much higher and if I am right about this the market will hold above 862.

Out

I just covered my short unit at 860.00.

Short

I just sold one e-mini unit at 856.00.  At this juncture the market should stay below 860 if it is going lower.

Out

I sold my one long unit of the e-minis at 849 after support at 850 was broken. 

Long

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 862.25.

Guesstimates on November 17, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s should hold support at 850 and then resume their rally.  Should 850 fail the next stop today would be the 825 level. QQQ: It looks like the Q’s are headed for 35.00.

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resistance above the market stands at 65.00.

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google is now headed for 250-260.

Out

I just sold my two long units at 885.00 on the rally from the day's low.  The high volume break from the first hour high at 907 which broke below the bottom of the 880-85 support zone makes me think that we have yet to see the day's low. 

In any case, I think Thursday's high at 913.75 will be taken out next week.

Added

I just bought my second e-mini unit at 898.25,  making me long two units at an average of 894.75.

Long

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 891.25 near the open.

Guesstimates on November 14, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s are now headed for 1050.  Support today is in the 880-85 zone.

QQQ: It now looks like the Q’s are headed for 35.00.

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resistance above the market stands at 65.00.

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google has failed to hold support so I think it is now headed for 250-260.

Shakeout Complete

The S&P e-minis dropped to 816.75, a new bear market low just about 1 pm Eastern time today. 

The subsequent rally has retraced all of the days losses and has done so on high volume. I think this means that the market is now on its way up to 1050. 

Down to 805

I don't like the way the market has traded since yesterday's close. We have run up and down between 845 and 865 several times and in my experience the market rarely gives you more than one chance to buy near the low. Today there have been several. 

So I think we shall see a drop below the overnight low at 825 in the futures which was made on October 27.  But I don't think the S&P's will spend more than a couple of hours trading below 825 before a big rally starts. My best guess is that this shakeout low will occur in the 800-10 range.

In the meantime, any rally to 885 would be very bullish and make me abandon my "down to 805" scenario.

Guesstimates on November 13, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s dropped as low as 841 in overnight trading.  We expect the 825 low of October 24 to hold. The next big move should be upward into the 1050-1100 zone. 

QQQ: It now looks like the Q’s will drop to a new low near 27.50 before another rally can start. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.   

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resistance above the market stands at 70.00. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google has failed to hold support so I think it is now headed for 250-260.

Guesstimates on November 12, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s should drop into the 850-75 zone before beginning a rally into the 1050-1100 zone. Resistance above the market today is again at 925. 

QQQ: It now looks like the Q’s will drop to a new low near 27.50 before another rally can start. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.   

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resistance above the market stands at 70.00. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google has failed to hold support so I think it is now headed for 250-260.

Guesstimates on November 11, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s should drop into the 850-75 zone before beginning a rally into the 1050-1100 zone. Resistance above the market today is at 925. 

QQQ: It now looks like the Q’s will drop to a new low near 27.50 before another rally can start.

 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while. 

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resisistance above the market stands at 70.00. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google has failed to hold support so I think it is now headed for 250-260.

Down to 875

The market didn't hold the 925 level and so I think it will drop to 875 before a rally above the 1000 level begins. 

Out

I did not think the market would go below Friday's close, so I just sold my e-mini unit at 935.50. As long as the market doesn't go below 925 I shall remain bullish and will be looking for another chance to buy.

Long

I decided not to wait for the floor open in stocks and have just bought 1 e-mini unit at 954.50. 

Guesstimates on November 10, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s rallied Friday despite the weak employment number and this, together with today’s positive early action tells me that the market is now headed into the 1050-1100 zone.  Support today should be found near 940. 

QQQ: The Q’s are now headed for the 36.00  level.  

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Resistance above the market stands in the 73-75 range. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 790. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range. 

Guesstimates on November 7, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s should drop into the 875-85 zone before the next big rally starts.  Meantime resistance is at 935. 

QQQ: The Q’s should find support near 29.60 and then start a big rally.   

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Resistance above the market stands in the 73-75 range. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 790. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range. 

Still No Support

The S&P's have dropped relentlessly all day, at one point trading more than 50 points below yesterday's close.

Over the past 45 minutes the market has staged the first rally lasting more than 15 minutes and 10 points since the open. This is the first sign of support but generally speaking indications like this develop before the low of the swing is in place.

For this reason I now believe we shall see the E-minis trade in the 875-85 zone before a sustained rally begins.

Guesstimates on November 6, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s have dropped into the 930-940 zone but the market still has not shown any sign of being supported. So I think we shall see a 920 print before the rally into the 105-1100 zone resumes. 

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 36.00. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Resistance above the market stands in the 73-75 range. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 790. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range. 

60-80 point break underway

In this morning's guesstimate I said that support in the S&P stood at 975.  However the market has since put in a lower top near the 1000 level and this makes me suspect that the entire move upward from 825 to 1008 in the e-minis is being corrected. I think the market will establish a higher low in the 930-40 zone during the next day or two and then resume its rally to 1080. 

Out

I just sold my long unit at 986.50.  I did not expect the market to drop all the way down to this morning's low but that's what it did.  

Long

I just bought one e-mini unit at 989.50.

Guesstimates on November 5, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I still think that the S&P’s are headed into the 1050-1100 range. Support today is again at 975. Weakness below that level will mean that the S&P’s will drop into the 930-40 zone. 

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 36.00. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.   

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Resistance above the market stands in the 73-75 range. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 790. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range. 

Guesstimates on November 4, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I still think that the S&P’s are headed into the 1050-1100 range. Support today is again at 940. 

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 36.00. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied to resistance at 99 but my best guess is that it will reach the 101 level soon. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Resistance above the market stands in the 73-75 range. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 810. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range. 

Out

I sold my one long unit at 961.50.  Weakness below the 960 level will probably mean that the market is headed for the 900-25 zone. 

Back In

I think I made a mistake selling my long unit of e-minis a little while ago. So I just repurchased that unit at 968.50. 

Out

I just sold my one e-mini unit at 966. Still bullish.

Long

I just bought one e-mini unit at 970.50

Guesstimates on November 3, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I still think that the S&P’s are headed into the 1050-1100 range. Support today is again at 930. 

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 36.00. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied to resistance at 99 but my best guess is that it will reach the 101 level soon. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Resistance above the market stands in the 73-75 range. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 810. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range.