Friday, November 21, 2008

Imminent Low

Here is today's front page of The New York Times. The emotional tenor of the headline and the article is visibly more fearful than yesterday's. Typically headlines like these are seen within a day or two of an important low. I think this one will be no exception to the rule. 


Anonymous said...

Happened at the high too except it was the same day at 14,000. Front page was dow breaks 14,000 and that was the end of it. Good observation

Anonymous said...

Let us assume a contrarian reading of the press, how about assuming that one may not read the right headlines?

Like « Citi group Big to Fail,' Sees Bailout »

Anonymous said...


"Typically headlines like these are seen within a day or two of an important low. I think this one will be no exception to the rule."

You posted similar comments on the Oct low with a string of frontpages allegedly signalling the low was in place only for the market to bounce and tank to take it out.

Do you think that was then an important now or that that occasion was an exception to the rule?

Anonymous said...

You had another front page posting yesterday and the market made new lows!

We are heading for the financial meltdown of the century! Paulson who is a liar and a cheat and stuffed his buddies pockets with our tax dollars said this happens once in a hundred years... Well genius u made history by doing it under 100yrs... the Depression was only 76yrs ago!

One thing I dont understand is all these politicians on the hill act like they know whats going on and have no Economics background, they only know the law and if that...

Carl, assuming ur estimates are correct about 1050-1100 on SPX, that would mean that the market will rally 40% higher from here... and why would the market rally that much? I understand prolly 10-20% of this Bear Market is FEAR, but all Bear Markets have the FEAR factor in them... I just see why a rally of 40% coming... I can see a one month rally of 20% and then we make new fresh lows in the spring when we will know better the Depression is for real and by then
the unemployment will sky rocket to 10%!


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

I just took a long position at 753.00, and I will add at 732.50 if we get down there.


Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...

How many times have you called bottoms using bearish magazine and newspaper covers? Whatever happened to your Lindsay and other good analysis?

Tim- said...

if we break the lows for the day I think you will see complete give up and no one will want to own this market ever again, that event creates a bottom

Anonymous said...

The long bond yield is over 4% and the effective DJI yield is approx 3.8%, bond futures continue to run higher....maybe the bottom isnt in yet. Perhaps uglier media headines next week and through the holidays?

Do you or anyone have historic work on the frequency of stock market related headlines and market bottoms?

You do great work!


Anonymous said...

Hello Carl,
I have also always been fascinated by your interpretation of George Lindsay's work. I would also appreciate an update with your current thoughts.

I must admit that I am concerned about the potential strength, magnitude, and duration of the next market rally due to the delevering that is occuring in the global financial system.

As a frequent visitor, thank you again for sharing your market wisdom.

Warm regards, J.

Anonymous said...

do you think with this bearishness around we will go right up to 2000 s&p?

Unknown said...

Gold is hovering around resistance, breaking through 800 numerous times..Can you comment on Gold?

Anonymous said...

Carl, I second J.'s request on your Lindsay opinion,



Anonymous said...

Carl i like the way you approach the market .It is due to your education ,and since you expose your thoughts and considering the uncertainty of this war game wich
is named stock market ,it is
easy for some other traders to have an other oppinion very interesting also , but without fantasy i am afraid we cannot win
this war. Bye.