Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Guesstimates on November 19, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  Yesterday’s late rally turned the short term trend upward and it will remain so provided support near 840 holds. Upside target is 1050.  

QQQ: It looks like the Q’s are headed up to 33.00.

TLT - December Bonds: The 121-122 zone is very strong resistance and I think the market will resume its longer term downtrend from there.  

December 10 Year Notes: The 119-120 zone is very strong resistance and I think the market will resume its downtrend from there.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resistance above the market stands at 62.00.

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google is now headed for 250-260.


Anonymous said...

Good morning Carl,
Well the rally has still not appeared. This is options expiration week and I think the strikes most in play are above the market so possibly a small rally - but the bigger picture is a worldwide economy in termoil. Even if we do get a rally this week(which is my no means assured), I think we will look to see what is happening below 800 soon.
And longer term - targets 600 and then 400 into 2011.
Best wishes Catherine

Anonymous said...


Your targets signal WWIII... We have already lost a decade in the markets, and with your projections we will head into a 3-5yrs GREATEST DEPRESSION! I really hope your wrong, because so many people's lives will be affected and the world will come to an end...


Anonymous said...

The sooner that everyone realizes that the sky is in fact falling, the better off the market will be.

Anonymous said...

I think people forget where we were in 2003 on the spx which was not so very long ago.

Anonymous said...


From what I see in my charts, looks like we will test or close at 800, with resistance at 925 on SPX... How are you coming up with 1050-1100?


Anonymous said...

Catherine, extrapolating your targets will place the SP500 at zero for year 2012 which agrees with the Mayan calendar year end of the world!

marketmakerX said...

Catherine I agree with ya. 30's style market lead to WW3. And we have been repeating the 30's. Everyone is still bullish. I mean every single fund manager I have talked too. They all been used to 1-2-3 year recovery. Most people going to be f....ed. I hope I am wrong. Cause everyone is going to be effected one way or another.

Anonymous said...

I thought we would stair step our way down to 800... Looks like we will re-test the 2003 lows and if Catherine is correct, could re-test 1992!

No end in sight to this Bear Market!

It's funny how no one predicted this Bear Market will go down 50% from 2007 highs and all these guys on CNBC are getting paid millions to predict a market they have no clue... Not to mention the real techies didn't even predict this!

Makes you wonder who really knows how to play this game???


Anonymous said...

So much for the bottom. This is the 4th time we've tested this level and, as usual, the 4th time was the charm. It would be devilish if this were a bear trap. Something tells me that won't happen.

Anonymous said...


You're a better man then me to put up with the nit picking and I dare say ignorant commentary. Secular fundamentals are the cheap social commentary for the cocktail party circut. Technical Analysis; moreover, quality analysis such as yours is a reflection of real work, conviction, expirence, etc and not media commentary!

Respectfully yours,


Anonymous said...

I'm going long Guns, cans of tuna, chili,and MRE's and bottled water.

Anonymous said...

The long bond futures look to be breaking out on the upside with the cash now under 4% again. If that is confirmed it's a different world ahead.