Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Guesstimates on November 11, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s should drop into the 850-75 zone before beginning a rally into the 1050-1100 zone. Resistance above the market today is at 925. 

QQQ: It now looks like the Q’s will drop to a new low near 27.50 before another rally can start.


TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while. 

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude is headed for 50.00 and resisistance above the market stands at 70.00. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 775. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google has failed to hold support so I think it is now headed for 250-260.


Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

A close today below 895.10 will trigger a new sell signal in my model. If this occurs, then the next solid area of support is at 720.10. Again, this is not a market call, there is no guarantee the market will ever trade that low, BUT IF IT DOES, then we will see a spirited rally from that very price, give or take a few ticks.


Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...


I must say you are all over the board with your predictions... One day Q's are heading to 36, and one day later they are making new lows!

I think you should concentrate on a weekly forecast and not months out... SPX 1100 seems like it will hit sometime next year which is 3-6mths out or maybe even in 2010... As a trader that you claim to be, why worry about what the market will do in that time frame if you are a daytrader???


Anonymous said...

Very large volume surges on ES contracts (Dec) a they press down to 885 following a 13:21 (EST) headline re: downgrade of GMAC debt. IF these volume surges cannot take the ES to new intraday lows, then my suspicion is that we rally off the 885 level. If they break the mid-day lows (882.75-ish), then we'll be into the 850-875 range.

My guess is that they break 'em.

Anonymous said...

Two comments:
1) Using ESignal server now on QCharts application. That huge volume I mentioned (>30K/1min candle) on the ES was for the symbol ES #F, which is the continuous front-month contract. When I plugged in ES Z8, which is Dec '08, it did not show extremely high volume. I checked out the next contract (ES H9), which is March '09, and that's not where the volume is, so I don't know to what to attribute the heightened volume.

2) It looks like they did NOT break 885 on ES Z8. So, we could be headed back up to close the a.m. gap between 920-ish and 905-ish.

Anonymous said...

Well, we almost closed it, rallying to 917 on the ES...then collapsed back down near the lows. That failure ain't bullish.

Anonymous said...


I,too, am very interested in your comments on the larger picture for equities. I suppose your 2009 prediction will soon be completed. It now appears the global economy is in far worse shape than anyone imagined on 1 October. In short, the bears were right. I think even they never thought stocks prices would go this low.