Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Guesstimates on November 4, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I still think that the S&P’s are headed into the 1050-1100 range. Support today is again at 940. 

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 36.00. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied to resistance at 99 but my best guess is that it will reach the 101 level soon. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Resistance above the market stands in the 73-75 range. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 810. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range. 


Anonymous said...

Well, we're into the gap at the open. Let's see if we can fill it up to 1003 on ES.

Anonymous said...

Gap go 1003 filled. Now we'll need to see a new impulse.

In my work we have a short-term overbought condition on the NYSE that has only occurred 4 times since 1993. Normally this leads to about 20 points of upside on the SPX between yesterday's close and Expiration...but then a rally of 6 weeks to 3 months following yesterday's reading.

We've already surpassed the 20 points of upside, but heightened volatility may account for that. Point being, that mkt is ready to pause, with possible test of support ideas, before continuing for a period of at least several weeks to the upside.

I like your 1050-1100 targets. I see a gap around 1050 that will ultimately need filling, and then 1075 is important for several reasons including Fibonacci Retracements, and a broken line of declining lows that was destroyed when mkt fell off the cliff.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

A close today above 996.80 would give me the first major buy signal in more than two months.


Kindest regards,


Surplus Stock said...

Well what i would like is to see a sharp upward trend of the markets to have me investing once again, already suffered a lot at the hands of the global Recession. Well I do hope the trend is steady so that i can take the chance the invest,this economic downturn has already been inflicted on my suppliers and thus starting to have a negative effect on my business Stock Disposal