Tuesday, November 18, 2008


I just sold my single long unit at 850 on a small rally after the market had dipped below that level. The fact that the gains of the day couldn't be held makes me think we are now headed down from here. 


Anonymous said...

Simple rules

and strategies, now revisited...
New traders frequently minimize the importance of simple rules in favor of more complex ones. In his video Barry Haigh tells about the rules that enabled him to earn as much as a million dollars a year in the spoos pit. What was Barry's simple rules?

In a bullmarket, when the open is steady to lower, you have to buy S&P futures contracts and hold on for the inevitable rally! simple huh?!

Now do the reverse, sell ES emini futures on these upmoves,lol.


Anonymous said...

Nothing is going up, as far as trends, until the 9 month low is in, at or about, the end of this month.

Anonymous said...

Have you forgot to update your bond forcast on your daily guestimates?

You have been calling for a drop to 111 while bonds have rallied almost a full 8 points from 112-20 to 120-13 beginning 11-3-08.

That is a huge miss whichout updating your forecast, $8K per contract?

Anonymous said...

this market has never assumed a single direction from open to close ... there is at least one, if not multiple reversals, taking out stops along the way and generally making a fool of everyone, including me.

Rick B

Anonymous said...

VIX now 73 (above Nov 13 high of 70) and SPX cash 828 (above Nov 13 low of 818). Stage is set for bullish divergence. Combine this with the lighter than avg daily volumes since the Nov 13th Very High volume up day and the fact that today is the 3rd lower low since Nov 13th and it is ripe for the PPT to start buying final hour.

Anonymous said...

Is this late rally action bullish? I suppose a close over 850 might be.

Anonymous said...

Just to be clear on what I said early as some of my friends got confused: All I am saying is that a SPX low > 818 with VIX high > 70 will place the market on more solid footing for the bulls going forward.

Anonymous said...

I think the karma guy at http://marketkarma.blogspot.com/ has got it right in terms of this trading range actually being accumulation price action.