Thursday, November 20, 2008

Long again

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 797.00.


Anonymous said...

Excellent call this morning on trading down to 775 before the cash market open, adding on to a winnner and bailing out on waning momentum.
This second trade looks a more aggressive.....than again; you're more insightful many of us!
Thank you for the blog.


Win said...

Good trading, Carl.

I realized almost immediately after my last post a few days ago -- about your inherent bullish bias -- that I was wrong about you only looking for bottoms in this bear market. You do look for tops as well. Saying we should go up to 1000 is looking for a top to short. So you are obviously using Box theory along with support and resistance on charts to come up with your targets. So I hope that you ignored that nonsensical part of the last comment.

I of course very much respect your skills, but I am curious about how you perceive your bullish bias to affect your trading. For me, if a market is overbought and I can see it as such -- riding on a hope and a fart as it was in late 2007 -- I want to either get out of my longs or short, and I have a propensity to look for tops too early. Conversely, in an environment such as today's, I look for bottoms because to me, we are oversold. For a trader, this instinct is clearly pernicious. In the past, it has been for me.

By the way, from where I stand, I clearly disagree with the end of the world callers. I think that this is our generation's Depression, and we will learn a lot from it, but as our grandfathers did, we will emerge stronger. I see the world advancing in a series of cycles, just as Wave theory does, and see this Depression as less severe than the one before.

My new and cocky crystal ball says that we will see a wave 5 of 5 bottom some time early next year, at around 6300 or 6400 on the Dow, around a 62.8% of the entire 1983 to 2007 advance. We may get a small bull market after that but I wouldn't be surprised to see an up and down meandering with no clear advance until 2011. Like others who read your blog, I am very curious about your long-term views and your perception of where we are in the Linsey cycles.