Thursday, November 06, 2008

Still No Support

The S&P's have dropped relentlessly all day, at one point trading more than 50 points below yesterday's close.

Over the past 45 minutes the market has staged the first rally lasting more than 15 minutes and 10 points since the open. This is the first sign of support but generally speaking indications like this develop before the low of the swing is in place.

For this reason I now believe we shall see the E-minis trade in the 875-85 zone before a sustained rally begins.


catherine said...

Everyone is hoping for a sustained rally. I think it will be a very marginal, unsatisfactory rally before a new low.
It's still a bear market.

DMA Trader said...

Nice guesstimates Carl

Anonymous said...

we're doomed aren't we? aren't we?

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
we're doomed aren't we? aren't we?"


Carl you must admit this is funny post.


Anonymous said...

What usually happens is everyone thinks we are going to turn for a bull run and then price drops quickly and before they know it it is plunging way past were they are planning for it to turn then at this point you see the compitulation and everyone hits the sell button trying to be the first one out before the huge plunge the first to get out are better off as they can buy back in at the lows and save themselves big percentage losses. Those that wait either get margin called or just have hardly any money for a long time if the company they have an investment in is not one of many companies failing in this enviroment and filing bankruptcy. And trust me you might not think there is no way that company can go broke. But many times in the past it has happened to me. And as proven lately it is happening frequently now.

Anonymous said...

An interesting and informed post from Anonymous yesterday at 5.57.

This is at an important juncture here.
Carl you are bullish (as always!) and a move to 1100 is one scenario - but we are at a juncture where a move through 880-900 would see a test of the old low and then new lows.
Both scenarios have equal weight for me at the momment. In favour of Carl's scenario is that a lot of other markets HK Dax FTSE are a long way away from their lows and showing a lot more relative strength. In favour of new lows is a simple fact - Jess Livermore always asked first - what type of market are we in ? It's a bear market and that is your if in doubt fall back. Catherine