Friday, November 07, 2008

Guesstimates on November 7, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The S&P’s should drop into the 875-85 zone before the next big rally starts.  Meantime resistance is at 935. 

QQQ: The Q’s should find support near 29.60 and then start a big rally.   

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.  

Dollar-Yen: The yen has rallied as far as 100.55 but I think the market will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline. The market rejected the 91 low decisively but the odds are that it will break to 89 before a rally well above the 100 level can start. 

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Resistance above the market stands in the 73-75 range. 

GLD - December Gold: I think gold will drop to 600. Resistance is at 790. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. 

Google: Google should rally to 425. Support remains in the 310-30 range. 


Anonymous said...

My work suggests that, in the context of the extremely strong surge up off the 10/28 low, that a standard Fibonacci retracement of that 6-day rally is very probably sufficient to set up firm footing for upside continuation. Both my own proprietary short-term indicator (which measure market internals) and the McClellan Oscillator (which measure the momentum of breadth)hit the kinds of heights that project higher highs without full-on re-tests of prior lows.

Win said...

I am long ES at 914.75.

Win said...

Sorry - a few more points: Went long at 11:35 EST or so. Lots of reasons -- reaction to the unemployment report, volume on a 1-minute, 3-minute, 5-minute chart (esp last), volume over the past 10 days, gut feeling.

Anonymous said...

What's the latest Carl? Still expecting down move? I appreciate your updates. Thx

Win said...

stopped out at 915.75 because of that crazy, high volume down move. Waiting and watching. Left 15 points on the table because I had decided this was a Swing trade, not a day trade. Hmmm...

Win said...

Back long at 917 on original premise.

(And feeling a bit silly about posting all these here.)

catherine said...

Managed to make money on a short today - only because I took profits fast and was lucky. Todays price action and close looked much more bullish. Agree with your target of 1100 Carl

Anonymous said...

The party of bears is finish i am close shorts 9 october.Believe a stockmarket flat side with some scare in early January.SP500 not should down to 800 in years.

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,

Here's a quote from Warren Buffet:

"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

I posted but you didn't publish it, but my model covered the 983.10 short position and went long on Friday at 926.00.

Kindest regards,


monkeypicks said...

PM What Warren said worked in the past many many times because We were in a huge bull market since 1929. The problems we face now are different than in the past. And eventually those that buying on every dip are wrong when faced with a huge economic downturn. Just ask carl futia that has been using negative magazine cover as a contrarian indicator for a long time. I expect some downside till mid november we will have somewhere near a three week rally but after that look out below. I will not listen to warren buffet sure he all wants you to buy he has alot riding on it.

Anonymous said...

on dec 27 you said a domed house would project to 10700 we have blown past that I would now call it a doomed house and yet you are still bullish. I cannot wait as we break through 8000 and you will still be calling for a rally then I bet.

Anonymous said...

I have reviewed a number of blogs and commentators - most are bullish. I revise my target to 995, just short of the last upmove.

Anonymous said...


So many times I've heard people say, "This time is different."

I hear it said in 1987 and in 2002. Maybe it is, but I doubt it. In any case, when I get a buy signal, I buy. When I get a sell signal, I sell. I don't have to decide whether or not this time is different, I will leave that to the experts, who have also been wrong many times before.

Socrates said, "The only thing I know for certain is that I know nothing for certain."

I bought Friday on my buy signal and that's all I know for sure.

Many thanks.

All the best and kindest regards,


Anonymous said...

PM... When i look at what is going on, i would venture that this time it really is different!!

I for one have certainly have never seen a prior situation when the market has turned so violently that it has taken out every US investment bank in the space of a year, and also put most of the western worlds deposit banks on government life support.