So What?

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Guesstimates on December 31, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1120-1130. So far the market has dropped about 15 points from Tuesday's high of 1128.50. I think that the ES is still in a 1105-1130 trading range and will visit the low end of this range before it moves substantially higher. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 79.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 30, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1110-1120. So far the market has dropped about 15 points from its high of 1128.50 yesterday, but I think that this reaction will find support in the 1105-10 range before a move to 1140 develops. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 79.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 29, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1118-1130. The market has broken out from its 1080-1115 trading range. Even so, I think we shall see a reaction of 15-25 points before the 1140 level is reached. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 79.00.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 28, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract again 1116-1127. The market has broken out from its 1080-1115 trading range. Even so, I think we shall see a reaction of 15-25 points before the 1140 level is reached. I also expect the market to reach the 1170 level during the next month or so.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 77.50.

GLD – February Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is at 1125.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 24, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is again 1110-1120. The market has started to creep out of its 1080-1115 trading range, but the low volume makes it hard to evaluate the significance of this breakout for the market's near term trend. Nonetheless, this action reinforces my view that the e-minis will reach 1170 or so during the next couple of months.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 77.50.

GLD – February Gold: Gold has broken 1100 support. This means the longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Google has reached its near term target at 610. Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

Guesstimates on December 23, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1110-1120. The market has started to creep out of its 1080-1115 trading range, but the low volume makes it hard to evaluate the significance of this breakout for the market's near term trend. Nonetheless, this action reinforces my view that the e-minis will reach 1170 or so during the next couple of months.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold has broken 1100 support. This means the longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Guesstimates on December 22, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1102-1116. The market remains stuck in a trading range between 1080 and 1115. I still think a visit to the low end of this range, possibly as low a s 1075, is likely before an upside breakout can develop.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold closed below 1100 support yesterday. This means the trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Guesstimates on December 21, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1098-1110. The market remains stuck in a trading range between 1080 and 1115. I still think a visit to the low end of this range, possibly as low a s 1075, is likely before an upside breakout can develop.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Big Ben

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Guesstimates on December 18, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1088-1100. The market remains stuck in a trading range between 1080 and 1115. I think a visit to the low end of this range, possibly as low a s 1075, is likely before an upside breakout can develop.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Sold one long unit at 1094.50 - a drop below 1090 is likely later today

Long one unit at 1094.25

Guesstimates on December 17, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1093-1105. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold continues to sag below what I think should be support. Still, I don't yet see a break in the rhythm of the up trend so I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

Guesstimates on December 16, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1103-1116. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken decisively below support at 147.50. I think this means that a drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold continues to sag below what I think should be support. Still, I don't yet see a break in the rhythm of the up trend so I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

Hard to read

Here is an hourly bar chart of day session, e-mini trading in the March 2010 contract. As you can see the market has traded sideways for a month in a very narrow range with many gaps. The gaps show that most of the up and down movement within this range reflects trading in Europe and Asia while U.S. markets were closed. No one in the U.S. seems to see any need to adjust their portfolios, no doubt a reflection of the desire to lock in decent 2009 results after a horrible 2008.

The narrow range and low volume, dull activity makes this market hard to read. Even so, I have found that I rarely get repeated chances to sell near the high price of an important top. This makes me think that we are more likely to see a significant upside breakout from this range than a significant downside breakout. There is a small bit of evidence that the market wants to move higher during the next few days. On the chart you can see that yesterday's and today's day session activity has developed above the green dash line. When the market was above this line previously sellers took immediate advantage of the opportunity, but they haven't jumped the market this time, at least not yet.

I remain convinced that the e-minis will reach the 1140 level during the next few weeks.

Guesstimates on December 15, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1098-1010. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken decisively below support at 147.50. I think this means that a drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold continues to sag below what I think should be support. Still, I don't yet see a break in the rhythm of the up trend so I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

'Tis the season!

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Guesstimates on December 14, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is again 1098-1012. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken decisively below support at 147.50. I think this means that a drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is in the 1120-1130 zone..

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

Still in the box

Here is an hourly chart of day session e-mini trading. There are two quite unusual feature visible. First, the market has been trading in roughly a 30 point range for nearly four weeks now. This is an unusually long time for a narrow trading range like this. Secondly, it seems that the only people with convictions about U.S. stock prices live in Europe and the far east. Witness the fact that virtually all of the up and down swings occurred primarily while pit trading was closed in Chicago - hence the many gaps visible on this chart.

What does it all mean? My working hypothesis is that U.S. based traders and money managers have had a good year. And they don't want to muck up their results for 2009 after they put in such bad results in 2008. They are probably waiting for 2010 to dawn before getting aggressive again.

But this is only a guess on my part. Looking only at the market's action during the past few days I see that the move up from this week's low at 1080 has been a low volume, low activity affair. The past two days have been especially dull. This to me has a bearish implication, but I don't yet see any reason to act on such implications given my basically bullish expectations for 2010.

So I will continue to try to be long this rally unless and until I see a high volume downside breakout from the past two days' ranges. In particular I still think that the market will emerge from the 4 week range on the upside before it breaks below its lower limits.

sold long unit at 1097.50

Long one unit at 1101.25

Guesstimates on December 11, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1098-1112. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1130.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

sold long unit at 1096.50

Long one unit at 1098.50 (March)

Guesstimates on December 10, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Switching to the March 2010 contract today which trades 4.50 points below December. Last night the market broke upwards from the trading range of the past two days. I think this means that the e-minis are headed for 1140, not 1040. Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1094-1108.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1130.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

Update

Here is an hourly bar chart of day session e-mini trading over the past month. Most of the trading has occurred in the two ranges outlined by the blue ovals. This is the most extended period of narrow, sideways trading we have seen during the rally from the March low at 666.

What does it mean? The natural interpretation is that bullish interest is weakening and bearish interest is strengthening, a process that is commonly called distribution. But I have been in this game long enough to be suspicious when I get lots of chances to sell near "the top". Even if this is distribution, I think it is more likely that we see an upside breakout first, possibly to 1140 or so, before a big break develops.

I have been expecting a drop to 1040 or so. But I am becoming very uncomfortable because the market is NOT displaying a normal bearish rhythm - successive "take no prisoners" declines separated by modest, relatively brief rallies. Instead we are seeing brief selling spasms followed by extended sideways action.

For these reasons I covered my earlier short for a modest profit. If this market should move back above the 1100 level I will be convinced that a substantial rally is underway.

Note: The March 2010 contract will become the active contract starting with the pit open tomorrow.

covered short unit at 1088.25

short one unit at 1093.25

Guesstimates on December 9, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: I think the e-minis are headed for 1040. Today's range estimate is 1080-1098.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1130.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

Update

Here is a daily chart of 24 hour e-mini trading. The market broke Friday's 1095 low this morning on high volume. I interpret this action as a kickoff for a move down to the green oval near 1040. That target is at the confluence of the lower channel line (green dash) and a midpoint support level (purple dotted line). Moreover, if the drop from Friday's high at 1119 carries the market down as far as the last reaction did it would end at 1046 (purple rectangles).

So far I see no reason for thinking this break is anything other than a normal interruption of a continuing up trend. So I still think we shall see the e-minis trading near 1170 sometime during the next couple of months.

Guesstimates on December 8, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis dropped below Friday's low this morning and this means that the market is now headed for the 1030-40 zone. Today's day session range estimate is 1085-1099.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1130.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

Late note

Since my earlier post today the e-minis have dropped about 9 points to 1100 and so far have held that level. While I didn't anticipate the afternoon break I do not think it negates the prognosis I offered earlier today, i.e. that the market is on its way to 1130 or higher.

Why? The afternoon break so far has held at the lower boundary of the green trend channel. In fact the drop so far has held above the low established at 1098.75 in electronic trading this morning. It has also held above the Friday low at 1095.50, thus preserving the pattern of higher lows since November 27. A drop below 1095 would negate these apparently bullish hints, but until that happens I am going to maintain the short term bullish stance I announced earlier today.

UPdate

Here is a 60 minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. As you can see the market has been trading sideways for nearly three weeks. Its trading ranges during that time (blue dashed ovals) have shown no real trend. After Friday's employment number was released the e-minis rallied nearly 20 points and then two hours later had dropped 25 points. In my experience such a bearish u-turn in response to good news normally implies that the market's' trend has turned downward.

As in all matters of market action interpretation it is vitally important to compare what actually happens to what normally happens. It is in this comparison that the most valuable information about the supply-demand balance will be found. In the present case it would have been normal for the e-minis to close Friday in the lower part of their range and to continue lower from today's open. But this is not what happened. Instead the market closed Friday above the midpoint of its Friday range (1107) and today has spent a good part of the day session trading above that level (purple dotted line). This fact, coupled with the evident pattern of higher lows since November 27 makes me think that the e-minis are about to rally to the top of the trend channel I have drawn on this chart.

Guesstimates on December 7, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: I am going to stick by my forecast that the market is on its way to 1030-40. But if I'm right about this we should see a drop today below 1095, Friday's low. If instead the e-minis hold above 1095 today or trade for a significant time above Friday's midpoint of 1107 I will switch to the bullish side. Today's day session range estimate is 1090-1105.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1130.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

covered at 1098.75 but will get short again

Update

Here is an hourly bar chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading. After the bullish employment number came out the ES rallied to 1119 but then pulled a u-turn downward on high volume. This sort of action is generally bearish and portends a downside breakout from the recent trading range. We should see the market close near its lows today and continue downward next week. In the meantime the midpoint of today's range at 1107 should be resistance. Downside target is 1040-50.

I want to emphasize that a failure to break below this morning's 1095 low later today or Monday would be very bullish action and flip be back to the bull side.

short one unit at 1103.25

sold one unit at 1111.00

Long one unit at 1114.00

Guesstimates on December 4, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market broke briefly below the 1100 level late yesterday, but after this morning's employment news it retraced all of that break and more. I interpret this as a bullish rejection of prices below the 1100 level. If I am correct about this the market has resumed its rally to 1130-40. Support stands at 1106. I estimate today's day session range will be 1106-1120.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

update

The e-minis have traded for three consecutive day sessions in a narrow, ten point range right at the top of an 9 month rally. Tomorrow the employment numbers will be released at 8:30 am.

I will tolerate a break to 1100 or so, but anything worse than that will mean that the market is probably headed down to 1040-1050. As long as 1100 holds I will continue to play for a move to 1130-40.

sold long unit at 1111.00

Long one unit at 1110.00

Guesstimates on December 3, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1108-1122. I think the market is headed for the 1130-40 range.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

Still up

Here is an hourly chart showing 24 hour e-mini trading. The trend is still upward as indicated by the rising trend in the market's trading ranges (blue ovals). This morning the market tried to break out over the last top at 1111.75 but couldn't hold its gains. The selling that materialized subsequently doesn't look terribly aggressive to me. The reaction so far has not even matched the size of the previous reaction (purple rectangles).

I think the market will continue to trade in its current range (second blue oval) for the rest of the day and then make a second upside break out attempt tomorrow.

Guesstimates on December 2, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1102-1116. I think the market is headed for the 1130-40 range.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.