Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Guesstimates on December 16, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1103-1116. I think the e-minis are headed for 1140.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has broken decisively below support at 147.50. I think this means that a drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold continues to sag below what I think should be support. Still, I don't yet see a break in the rhythm of the up trend so I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

10 comments:

Kishore said...

The ES charts appear to be ideally primed for a blast off but it has not happened yet. Maybe, it will keep trying a few times. However, failure of a blast off would mean engine failure.

Aarpenn said...

This is real dull market, especially considering Options expiration (Quadruple). Something is definitely brewing for next 2-3 days (up or down, not sure)

George said...

Carl, what is the contrarian interpretation of Bernanke TIME Person of the Year?

Kishore said...

Carl, your theory that overnight action in ES refelcts trading in Europe and Asia while US markets are closed would mean that European and Asians are enjoying a big meal during the night and throwing us the crumbs to chew on throughout the day.

I believe that the overnight action that we see is due to a few American night owls on the payroll of the market manipulators, namely the FED and the banks. It takes them less money to jack up ES during the night, so they can distribute the stocks at higher prices throughout the day. But now the fish are not biting as much.

Kishore said...

George, the contrarian interpretation would be that he is able to eat his own BS, straight from horse's mouth, without letting it fall on the ground because of the close proximity of his entrance to his exit.

I have rarely seen anyone in as responsible a position as Bernanke to eat his own words, as often.

TAE said...

George, I think we will find out what the market's interpretation is of the person of the year today at 2:15.

Kishore said...

The blast off is scheduled at 2:15 pm EST. We may space out into zero gravity. Tighten your seat belts!

Jeff said...

NASA reports that the blast-off was scrubbed by a bear sighting. ;)

F&H Painting said...

This is as exciting as watching paint dry. I think I will go back to trading baseball cards....or GLD

PM said...

Hi Carl,

My timing model gave me a confirmed sell signal today, one day ahead of the scheduled deadline of December 17th...

Thanks...

Kindest regards,

PM