Friday, December 18, 2009

Guesstimates on December 18, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1088-1100. The market remains stuck in a trading range between 1080 and 1115. I think a visit to the low end of this range, possibly as low a s 1075, is likely before an upside breakout can develop.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The drop below the 87.00 level is starting to look like a false breakout. A move above 91 will mean that continuation up to 100 is likely.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is now at 1100.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely. Support is at 1675.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.

12 comments:

PM said...

Hi Carl,

Of course, it's anyone's guess right now, but still, the overall trend is higher. I just had a long awaited confirmed sell signal this past Wednesday which means the market could easily move lower near term, but my thinking is that we're not going to see much selling only because the market's internals have been strong despite the fact that some of the groups have been weak more recently. We may have already seen the lows yesterday, time will tell. I traded the market yesterday looking for a buy, I went long several times and finally bought at 1092.00 and am still holding this position..

I would consider those weaker groups to be the cause of the sideways motion in the major indices, because if you take a look at some of the groups individually, you'll see that some are still making new highs while some are still correcting and have nearly completed their corrections.

Therefore, what we've been witnessing in the major indices is not a distribution phase as the so called experts claim but a sideways rolling correction which has formed a huge bullish pennant. if this assessment is correct, then we should see an explosive move higher soon, most likely upon the next buy signal which can occur at any time, certainly with a trade above 1108.50 today.

My next buy signal is scheduled to occur at any time but no later than the first week in January.

Thanks.

Kindest regards,

PM

Win said...

Carl,

Surprising to me to see this tepid response to RIMMs hot results. Is this a case of the dog that didn't bark? Perhaps not. I think you're right about profit taking in the market, which will take it down end-of-year. But this may be base building which may be bullish 1-3 months out.

extrader said...

I am expecting a bounce at 1088 and possibly the LOD...

ex

TA.Stockman (formerly, one of the Jeffs) said...

Hey, PM...

What happened to this comment a few days ago?
"That price and date refers to the December contract. For the March contract we're looking at 1129.70 on December 17th. Therefore, time is running out for this rally despite the bullish chart pattern. We must see March close above 1129.70 on Thursday or we're going to have that long awaited correction."

You guys crack me up.
The market will move the way the market wants to move.
The market will correct or go higher based on the momentum that develops...until then, you're all blowing smoke with your "projections".

TA.Stockman (formerly, one of the Jeffs) said...

Oh...and the S&P Daily has negative momentum developing. Until that reverses (which it could in a heartbeat), the direction on the DAILY will be DOWN. I will look at 1085 as support and see what happens there.

Kishore said...

TA, I agree. For highly leveraged day traders, the long term projections can cause big losses.

Surely, to get to 1140, ES needs to go through 1100, 1110, 1120, 1130. Day traders can not aford to let the long-term projections cloud their thinking. We must trade what the market is doing right now and not try to anticipate more than we can put our money on.

PM said...

Dear TA,

Take a closer look at your calendar, we didn't reach 1129.70 and so the markets sold off sharply. Exactly as I said.

I believe if you learn to comprehend what you read, you'll be much better off.

Have a nice day...

PM

Kishore said...

PM, you are absolutely right. The market always follows your dictates. It must be because only the market understands what you say.

Long time ago, I asked your to explain the basis of your "signals" and you said that it is proprietary. How is it that your market projections are free?

PM said...

Dear Kishore,

I'm not going to explain how my model works, that is private. But, I have no problem sharing with Carl and whomever else cares to read it any of the data the model provides.

Pardon me if I'm not reading you clearly, but I detect a certain arrogance from you. I find this unnecessary and inappropriate among adults attempting to share a common interest, unless your interest is merely to be provocative.

But suffice it to say that I always copy and paste my earlier comments with a time stamp and date as a reference to justify my more current comments. Certainly, if my current posts regarding previous references are not accurate then I would presume that Carl would screen it and not print it.

If Carl is the final check point for legitimacy, and I believe he is since this is his Blog and he would not allow ill-referenced comments, then I suggest you take a breather and slow down and read my comments more carefully. Or, ignore my comments, you're certainly not compelled to read what I share with Carl and others.

I will not waste any more time getting into a pissing match with you or with anyone, so this is the end of my response to anyone who cannot read and/or understand plain English and/or are jealous of the precision of my model. I've responded to you out of simple courtesy to your query, but I've noticed you have a history of provocative posts. I'm not really sure what your problem is, but, frankly, whatever it is I don't care...

Good luck to you and have a nice day...

PM

Win said...

PM,
I appreciate your posting on this forum. However, I confess that your posts are often quite nebulous for me. Since I cannot see what the basis for your sell signals is, and how long or short-term they are, I cannot use them as an aid, even if I were to attempt to verify accuracy. For instance, I don't know if your sell signal is valid on a very short, short, or intermediate term time frame. Also, if it's a short-term signal, I cannot rely upon you to post live or myself to be able to check live (to reverse direction carefully). If you're trying to be helpful, you could be more helpful by giving a little more information about your means and your expectations.

PM said...

Dear Win,

Thanks for you thoughtful question. I've actually tried to explain some things about my timing model here on Carl's Blog a few times, the last time on July 8, 2008, but I will copy any paste part of my comments from that post.

On 7/08/2008 11:41:00 AM I submitted to Carl the following:

"My own personal market timing model is strictly mathematical. It measures price and time as if price were a physical object moving through space without the influence of gravity. The distance price moves is measured in price. Price is the same as distance. Time is measured in days. In this way, my model not only measures price, but it also measures time, which is equally as important as price. As a result, upon any given signal my model also tells me at what price buying and/or selling will most likely enter the market after a major rally or decline regardless of time, and it also tells me when to buy and sell regardless of price.

Although it may sound like it, my model is not a momentum indicator of any sort, momentum is not considered.

My model tells me in advance, although these are never targets, that IF the market reaches a prescribed price or time, then a turnaround is very likely to occur. The time element gives me a “no later than” due date at which time a rally or selling will begin regardless of price.

I really don’t care to occupy Carl’s blog or abuse his kindness by explaining my timing model on his blog. If he doesn’t object, then I will be glad to clarify."

Additionally, I could add here that my model is not based on any of the known TA models, it is something completely original and private. I find it remarkable in its accuracy, although nothing is perfect so I do get signals that yield losses because the market would turn around very soon thereafter and a reverse signal may not yet be issued quickly enough.

As a well know market timer once said, TA is not a crystal ball, it is merely a wind sock, it tells you what the market is doing now, nothing more.

However, that being said, my model does also give deadlines and time limits to the very day in advance how long a rally and/or a decline may last. For the current market, my model tells me that there are two lower levels where buying should enter the market, but only if prices actually decline. The model is reactive to the market, it makes no advanced predictions about where market prices should go. My model follows the market, it doesn't tell the market what to do.

My model now says that a sharp rally will occur IF AND WHEN we trade down to 1065.10 and also at 1050.80. Also, IF AND ONLY IF prices are above 1050.80 on January 4th, then we will have a buy signal and the market will rally.

Trying to explain how my model works would be like trying to explain how to ride a bicycle. It would be so much simpler to get on the bike and ride.

I hope this was at least somewhat helpful. And many thanks to Carl for kindly allowing me to provide you, and hopefully others, with some insight into my timing model. This is not my Blog, I don't want to take up so much space.

Kindest regards,

PM

Win said...

Thank you, PM. Just noticed this and will read through it carefully. Best wishes for a happy new year!
Win