Friday, December 04, 2009

Guesstimates on December 4, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The market broke briefly below the 1100 level late yesterday, but after this morning's employment news it retraced all of that break and more. I interpret this as a bullish rejection of prices below the 1100 level. If I am correct about this the market has resumed its rally to 1130-40. Support stands at 1106. I estimate today's day session range will be 1106-1120.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I think that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

8 comments:

George said...

I may sound crazy for writing this, but I think this rally is a final test of the bears' stomachs and will reverse. However, I will change my mind if ES breaks 1117.

Rajath said...

oil UP!
$ UP!!
S&P UP!!!

what the hell ... can someone explain this !

extrader said...

Carl,

How is your NYX prediction going?

Thought we were in a new BULL market? Since your October post of the NYX it has gone down 20%!

This is why I don't beleive this magazine cover stuff goes with the markets... if it was that easy, everyone would wait for Time magazine to post the end is near and then we would all buy and market would be back to 1500 in 6 months!

Good Luck

Kishore said...

Rajath, the market goes up, no matter what!

As we touched 1119, three cheers for Carl!!!

TAE said...

For Rahath:

Long term cash coming off the sidelines/fixed income?

Kishore said...

There a sell-off in bonds and some of that money went into the stock market.

Bernake should be a happy man this morning as he is eating his cake, stock market up, and having it too, dollar up.

But this could only be temporary.

me said...

I'll sit back and relax and enjoy the ride up for at least 5 more days. Of course, we will have at least 1 down day out of those 5 up days, but the trend is up for another 5 days. I believe we will finish with P1 wave after those 5 days, and we'll have P2 (down wave) which will last for at least 2 months. I believe we are in the last leg up of P1.

Kishore said...

me, please don't relax too much for the next 5 days, as P2 may have already started.