Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Guesstimates on December 23, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1110-1120. The market has started to creep out of its 1080-1115 trading range, but the low volume makes it hard to evaluate the significance of this breakout for the market's near term trend. Nonetheless, this action reinforces my view that the e-minis will reach 1170 or so during the next couple of months.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 75.00.

GLD – February Gold: Gold has broken 1100 support. This means the longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Support is now at 565. This step upward will carry to 610.


Bill said...

I wouldn't be too concerned about low volume.

The market made phenomenal gains this year on days of low volume. As a matter of fact traders that took the summer off, by the time they came back from vacation in September missed the "low volume" summer rally. Traders that go on vacation may miss another "low volume" rally by the time the get back from holidays in January.

Rajath said...


crude oil broke $75 resistance .. so what next ?

kcounty said...

supply shock?

PM said...

Dear Rajath,


For what it's worth, I bought crude oil today. If the global economies recover, then we will likely see an increase in energy needs and oil consumption, especially by the emerging countries that use crude oil primarily. Also, the oil producing countries already said they would like to see the benchmark price from crude oil in 2010 to be $88 BBL. This is much higher than the current benchmark price, therefore they will certainly cut production while demand increases in order to meet their benchmark goal.

My best to you,


Jim said...


I simply wish you health and continued success with all you pursue!
Having been a student of the markets for over 30 years; without reservation you are in a esotheric class of gentlemen.
You are in short; a true brother to humanity, via youre instructions and disicpline.

mfm9800 said...

Sure would be interested in more information regarding the about-face on silver. Looking for a low of $10 over the next few months?