Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Guesstimates on December 8, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The e-minis dropped below Friday's low this morning and this means that the market is now headed for the 1030-40 zone. Today's day session range estimate is 1085-1099.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1130.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.


Kishore said...

Carl, your estimates are far out! I love them because you they have been very accurate with the estimates.

jeff said...

Glad I added to my shorts as it is very difficult to go by a 60 minute chart.

FYI, not only have the FXE and USO broke their respective March 2009 support lines, but the dollar has broke above it's 50 DMA after filling an unfilled gap from August 2008. Along with financials and Oil topping in October, we have even more evidence that we have topped, the bear market rally is over, and we are starting Large 'C' down to S%P 400 by 2011.

However, I still believe we will some sort of holiday rally into year end. History shows us market crashes don't start in December, but rather, wait until after the first of year. Simply look at the charts over the past 10 years.

jeff said...

Some additional near-term info:

A low Investors Intelligence on the Bears reading(sub 20%), a surge in speculative options trading, extremely net short "smart money" traders in the Nasdaq 100, terrible historical performance after a Nonfarm Payroll reaction like last week, poor seasonality for this week.

A break below 1095 enables the market to almost immediately head down to 1085. Per my Elliott count, the 1078 should provide some decent support(there is also an unfilled gap at 1070) from which to bounce sometime next week.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

Next Friday is option expiration again, so the floor specialists are going to push this market lower to squeeze out the small time speculators and call buyers before then... this is a regular monthly drill, you would think people would catch on by now, but the same herd is led to the slaughter every month... after option expiration, this market is most likely to rally again, it's a bull market...


Kindest regards,


Kishore said...

Now we have three islands on the top. The first two island tops had a duration of 3 days each. The third one has a duration of 5 days.

To me at least, three islands on the top mean a major trend reversal.

Carl's original prediction was for for 1120. 1120 was also the top that many bears were looking forward to, to short. We touched 1119. Somehow, the estimates of the top got revised to 1130-1140 but right now, 1119 seems to be the top.

jeff said...


If you're now calling for a market fall to 1030-1040, why haven't you yet put on any short positions?

Inquiring minds want to know!

MC said...

Again, I think we're in a bear trap. I am expecting prices to rally either today or tomorrow onwards towards the end of the year and reach targets well above the 1120's. Cheers. MC

jeff said...

This little retracement is working perfectly. Looking for the S&P to get back to 1078-1080(cash). This point would not only represent the 50 DMA, but also point E of a larger A-E horn formation that started in mid-November. However, if we fall below 1070, I'll stick with Carl's expectations, but I still think we need to have some Holiday cheer heading into the New Year. I think Gold will have some pretty good support at the 1130 level as well.

Luvin the short-side even if it's just rental.

Kishore said...

We may be witnessing the beginning of a trend reversal in the dollar, whatever the reason. This should allow Bernanke to crank up the printing presses some more. If inflation is what we want, we will surely get it.

But an over-inflated bubble of a market can potentially burst. Lack of demand for consumption by a bankrupt consumer will put deflationary pressures.

It is hard for the market to find the right balancing point.

The roller-coaster action of the market may become the norm for some time, until the good conquers the prevailing forces of evil.