Monday, December 07, 2009

Guesstimates on December 7, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: I am going to stick by my forecast that the market is on its way to 1030-40. But if I'm right about this we should see a drop today below 1095, Friday's low. If instead the e-minis hold above 1095 today or trade for a significant time above Friday's midpoint of 1107 I will switch to the bullish side. Today's day session range estimate is 1090-1105.

QQQ: Support is at 42.50. Upside target is 46.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1130.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.


me said...

I believe the bulls still have one last push up and have about 4 more days to break out of the box. If the bulls can't, then we would go down hill.

Martin Niemann said...

Carl, doesn't yesterday's sell-off in Gold constitute a supply shock that should send gold lower over the next few weeks?

Thx, Martn

JM said...


until now the market pattern shown would have been commented by you that the market clearly rejects the trading below 1100, what does change yr mind

jeff said...


Short-term indicators say the market is a oversold, but the longer we meander and do nothing, the more that oversold indicator wears off.

Today's observations:

1. Financials and Oil continue to underperform
2. Google, Apple, and Amazon continue to drift down
3. Volume continues to dry up
4. For the first time since March, the Euro broke it's support trendline
5. I think a break below the March trend line(~$37) on the USO means a top is in on the S&P(I've made mention that there a decent S&P weighting in oil related stocks). As such, USO better bounce around these levels or the stock is ruined and the bear market rally is over.
6. After a parabolic rise, GLD has sold off hard. However, the charts say it should find support around 111. I still think we've see an intermediate top around 1120/oz.

However, if we close above 1111 on the S&P cash market, the bulls have new life. With an oscillator at plus 5, it's hard to put money to work on the long side.

All the best,

me said...

I believe it will close 1107 or higher today.

jeff said...

Of the 10 times since 2000 that the S&P has gapped up +1% on Non-Farm Payroll day, only 1 time did it close the next week in positive territory, and overall its average return was -2.1%. We also have negative seasonality for the coming week (negative seasonality? From the 4th through 10th trading days of December, the S&P has managed a gain 43% of the time since 1928.

Kishore said...

It appears that we will be retesting 1096 today itself. And we the retest fails, the next support is at 1085.

Kishore said...

Bernanke's efforts to prop up the market are always well-timed. Listening to his speech today, it appears that he must be fearing a sell-off.

greg said...

you guys, i think carl couldn't care less about what your indicators say...he keeps things simple:<)

cberber said...

Hi Carl, I've noticed that the long term trendline from the highs in Nov 2007 is holding as resistance while there is a line running through the rally from march that is acting as support. (Not directly under all of our dips but starting around Jan 14th until now)

So my question is since these two lines are about to intersect what should we expect?