Thursday, December 24, 2009

Guesstimates on December 24, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March contract is again 1110-1120. The market has started to creep out of its 1080-1115 trading range, but the low volume makes it hard to evaluate the significance of this breakout for the market's near term trend. Nonetheless, this action reinforces my view that the e-minis will reach 1170 or so during the next couple of months.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: A drop to 140 is underway. My best guess is that 140 will be only temporary support and that the market will drop to 125 over the next couple of months.

Dollar-Yen: The yen has moved above the 91.00 level and this means that a rally to 100.00 is underway.

February Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is at 77.50.

GLD – February Gold: Gold has broken 1100 support. This means the longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - March Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months.

Google: Google has reached its near term target at 610. Next upside target is 660. Support remains at 565.

5 comments: said...

Dear Carl,
We wish you Merry Christmas and may the new year make all your wishes come true.

Win said...

Happy holidays and thank you!

I hope that the new year brings you and yours peace and happiness.

Alan said...


One of the things that attracted me to your site(s) years ago was your knowledgeable use of George Lindsay’s pattern techniques. My sense is that the market has been so distorted that anything other than intraday trading such as you now publically practice (and I do not) is impractical.

The market (DJII) has now reached a point in time and price that others have found a Lindsay pattern. It prompts me to ask for your comments on the intermediate outlook in general and this pattern in particular. Also, where would you place us on the “count from the mid section”?
Alan Barrett

Kishore said...

Alan, are you talking about the pattern called 3 Peaks and a domed house?

Are we currently making the domed house?

What will be the target high as per the pattern?

Kishore said...

According to Larry Pesavento, the peak of the Domed House in Lindsay Pattern should be 1.618 from the last peak. 1126 made a ratio of 1.618 from the last peak.

So, it would appear that we have completed the Lindsay pattern? If so, is this "the top"??

However, personally, I have never found "top guessing" to be of any interest from trading perspective.