Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Bullish rejection, but no demand shock

Here is a 30 minute bar chart of day session e-mini trading. The market has moved well above the 900 high of my original range estimate. The advance from yesterday's close to the 905 high of a few minutes ago has been essentially uncorrected - a defining characteristic of a support rejection. The fact that this move comes out of yesterday's dull, narrow trading range increases my confidence that this indeed is a support rejection with bullish implications.

So I conclude that the drop from the 953 high was completed at yesterday's 884 low. There has been no demand shock yet - volume on this advance has been low to moderate compared to volume at the same time of day previously (green oval). But I do think we shall see a demand shock develop as the market moves higher.

In the meantime I think today's range will now be 896-916 (blue rectangle). The market has just rallied an amount equal to its last rally on the way down (purple dotted rectangles). So a reaction of 8-10 points would be normal. But I think 895 will hold if this is indeed a bullish situation.

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