Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Range estimate revision

Here is a 15 minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. During the past 30 minutes the market has broken below the low of yesterday's intraday trading range (red rectangle). It did this on high volume relative to the past week's trading at the same time of day (red arrows and horizontal red line). This tells me that the 926.25 print was the high of today's range and that we will put in a bigger range than yesterday's. I am estimating a 20 point range for the day - 906-926 (blue rectangle).

Is the market headed back to 884 or lower?. I don't think so, but a drop below the 906 level on good volume would change my mind about this. In the meantime I will stick with my view that the market is on its way into the 965-80 range.

1 comment:

Kishore said...

It appears that the previous drop from June 11 was wave 1 down. The rally up from June 23 was wave 2 up. Now, if it is that start of wave 3 down, we should be going down BIG TIME!