Friday, June 05, 2009

Supply Shock


Here is a 30 minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. I think we have just seen a supply shock hit the market (red arrows). Volume was high and the drop was essentially uncorrected. At the very least this means that the market is headed down into the 905-915 range. My revised estimate for today's day session range is 930-952 (blue rectangle).

3 comments:

John M said...

We may have seen the finishing spike of the final wave up from the 660 low. If so, this would mean a B wave down that--at minimum--should result in a Fibonnaci 38.2% correction. Roughly, this takes us down to 850-ish, and a 50% correction wouldn't be out of order to down nearer 800.

Of course, this would be a great buying opportunity for anyone who measures their trades in weeks or even months, as the resulting C wave up would likely reach 1100 or so.

So for those with a broader horizon, there may be some highly profitable short and long trades in the near future.

One man's opinion.

thing.one62 said...

Going back up... Is your forecast for 905-915 still on the table now?

Do you still think that 952 is the top for today, then DOWN to 905-915?

Me vs. Wall St said...

Hi Carl,

Is there a way to discern supply shocks vs. exhaustive selling?