Monday, June 22, 2009

Today's range

Here is a five minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. This morning's range estimate is depicted by the blue rectangle (892-907). I am going to stick with this estimate for the time being, but this morning's rejection/supply shock makes it likely that today's range will turn out to be bigger than I thought it would.

In any case, I think the next rally should start from a level above 890 and carry the market up no more than 8-10 points. The last rally on the way down was 9 points (purple rectangles). The midpoint of the day session range thus far is 901-02 (red dashed line) and this would imply a rally from current levels of only 6-7 points. This is a better guess for the size of the next rally given that sellers are definitely in control of this market.

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