Monday, June 08, 2009

Revised range estimate

Here is a five minute bar chart of e-mini day session trading. Activity this morning is quite slow and this is consistent with my view that the drop from Friday's post employment number high at 957.50 is corrective. The low level of today's activity has led me to contract my range estimate a bit. It now puts today's day session range between 920 and 935 (blue rectangle). Resistance above the market is at 940, the midpoint of the rally from Friday's low (dotted purple line).

I think the market has a good chance to drop to 903. This is midpoint support based on two different calculations. It is the midpoint of the drop from the October high at 1067 to the November low at 739. And it is the midpoint of the reaction last month which dropped the market from 929 to 876. A drop from 957 to 903 would moreover equal the length of the biggest reaction the market has seen on the way up from the March low at 666.

1 comment:

stacy said...

I admire your flexibility.