Monday, June 15, 2009

What's not happening ?

Here is a five minute chart of today's e-mini day session. The red dashed line represents the low of the recent trading range in the September contract. Here is my question. What don't we see in this chart?

Answer: increasing volume on aggressive selling activity after the break below the trading range low. I always say that what the market fails to do is often more important than what it does do. In this case, after the downside breakout volume remained low (green dashed line) and the market just drifted a little lower. This is not normal behavior after a downside breakout. One normally expects volume to build and prices to accelerate downward.

I think this means that we are seeing a reaction in an uptrend, not a reversal that could carry the market 150 points lower. I still think we shall see a 903 print later this week, but today's action means that I will follow any sign of a bullish rejection of 918 support.


Ron said...

Informative and educational explaination Carl. Thank You.

janet said...

Sounds good to me..are you still bullish on gold?? TIA