Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Update at 12:30 pm

Here is a 15 minute bar chart showing e-mini day session trading during the drop from last week's high. I got long early this morning at 904.50. I was expecting the market to dip quickly toward 900 and then stage a fast rally that would take it above the day session open at 906.75 (dotted red line).

In the event the market dropped a little below 900, but then took its time to rally. Even as I write this the e-minis have spent more time today below the open than above. I take this to be a minor bearish indication, one that suggests that today's range may turn out to be narrower than the 900-920 range I originally estimated this morning (blue rectangle). So when the market rallied as much as the biggest previous rally on the way down (purple rectangles) and into midpoint resistance (dotted purple line) I decided to accept my 6 point profit and look for another chance to get long, probably somewhere near my original 904.50 entry this morning.

I think we have seen the start of a base building phase which will be followed by a rally into the 965-980 zone.

1 comment:

Ron said...

Very helpful and educational comment Carl. Many thanks.