Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Always darkest before the dawn

Here is my latest post on "The Art of Contrarian Trading".


Laurence said...

Carl, have you already forgotten the covers of Newsweek and Economist the last couple of weeks extolling the glorious recovery the US is now befitting from?

pimaCanyon said...

Laurence, huh???

I don't understand your comment. Seems like you are missing the point of Carl's post.

Kishore said...

Laurence, I doubt that Carl has forgotten it. Moreover, as far as I remember, he did give it a bullish interpretation, as the CONTINUATION of a great bull market, a great BEGINNING for the retail investor to jump in.

Nevertheless, we all do have selective persistence of memory, or at least, we interpret and remember only what gives impetus to our biases.

But then, no one ever admits being biased. Well, I can't help but admit that I am biased in favor of Carl because Carl has been MOSTLY right, with a GREAT BATTING AVERAGE! And Carl has also proven to be flexible to the moods of the market.

marketmakerX said...

Kishore, with all do respect, Carl has been mostly right as long the market is on an uptrend. I have followed his blog and Tickersense polls and he has been bullish since 2007 TOP all the way down :)

Kishore said...

marketmakerX, our minds, in general, are not as cyclical or flexible as the stock market.

An unchanging bias should give us at least 50% probability of success, though stubborn bulls have an edge over stubborn bears because market goes up slower, during a longer time, and goes down faster during a shorter time. So, timing is even more critical for the bears.

Flexibility can be an asset only if the timing is right, otherwise it can cause double jeopardy if the trader's flexible bias is out of phase with the market cycles.

I have maintained that timing is more critical and can overcome the inherent bullish or bearish bias.

As far as I know, Carl made money going long even during the 2008 bear market.

marketmakerX said...

Kishore, well said buddy. I agree. I am struggling with that mind games all day all year. :)) Been trading too long, and to avoid bias and mind games I try to sail through the line of least resistance (uptrends vs downtrends) AllI try to do is identify uptrend to be long bias and once stocks break down and downtrend begins I am bear. As far as Carl, he was expecting a decline all 07 but late 07 he turned bullish. I was shocked to see him going 180 from bearish views supported by his doom day charts and was correct with his assessment and instead changed his views to bull all the way down. I asked him few times why he deviated from his original market analysis of DOOMS day peak scenarios.
Anyway, all the best.