Thursday, April 22, 2010

Guesstimates on April 22, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1191 - 1204. I still think that the 1180 low ended the correction and that a swing to 1270 is now underway.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 has begun.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway. 540 is now support.


MC said...

i agree with Carl's view on stocks even though i don't trade minis but currencies and it is my believe that the next big move in the euro will be to the upside not to the downside. My guess is that the euro should not close the day below 1.3340 before having a major upside break and start a counter trend rally towards 1.38-1.39. Cheers. MC

Kishore said...

ES is making a giant bull flag and is currently at the lower boundary.

Overnight ES action was like a yoyo. From RTH close, at 1201.75, it first dropped to 1195, then went up to 1204 to break the bull flag. Then after 4 am EST, the Greece news hit the wires and ES dropped to 1192. Higher PPI number is also putting addditonal downward pressure.

If ES opens below the Monday gap, we will have an overhead island with bearish implications and today may turn out to be a trend down day. Morning breadth should resolve whether or not it will a trend down day.

But due to the algo support, conspiracies all around, and timely releases of "news", ES may make another attempt to break the bull flag during RTH, if the opening breadth is good and it turns out to be not a trend down day.

curt said... to sum it up, it could go up or it could go down.

Kishore said...

Curt, that was your typical curt response. Living up to your name? yeah!