Monday, April 26, 2010

Guesstimates on April 26, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1205 - 1217. A swing to 1270 is now underway.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway. 540 is now support.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends.

9 comments:

PM said...

Hi Carl,

These markets over reached on the downside, they will now over reach on the upside, and very possibly to new all time bull market highs...

Not only do market go to extremes in both directions, but the companies on the exchanges also go to extremes... the two previous recessions were mild compared to this one, I think people forgot what a real recession is like, and so people think this time we won't recover so quickly, if at all... I think most all these companies may have also anticipated a much worse recession than we actually had and they cut man power more than necessary and didn't restock their inventories in fear of a greater economic disaster... all it takes is a spark of improvement, which is what we now have globally, and all these companies will eventually have to order more goods to restock their inventories and also hire people back... maybe not all in one day this week, but over the next year, this is extremely bullish for stocks...

The TRANSPORTS are telling us that the shipping business is booming, this includes trans-ocean cargo shipping worldwide... there will be no double dip recession, the global economy is much more healthy right now than people are willing to believe...

When a recession hits, people are still reveling in the wonderful economic numbers and cannot bring themselves to realize that a recession is already under way, that kind of thinking is behind the market... today we have the exact same thing in reverse, even with things now turning up worldwide, people can only focus on the negative news that reinforces their perspective that we're in a terrible recession and will not pull out of it so quickly, if at all... this kind of thinking is also behind the market...

Kindest regards,

PM

curt said...

PM that is a pretty good synopsis. I have to agree with you and Carl...when I talk to guys who follow the market and the economy there is still an overall feeling of..."this market is ridiculous", or "the market is unrealistic and is being manipulated"...these ppl have been saying this for the last yr and those views are based on the same reasons and logic you hear all the time by the talking bear heads. All the bad news is in this market and has been for a long long time, but ppl still want to trade it. when everyone comes around to the bullish side then it will be time to be bearish...but for now remaining bullish is the contrarian approach.

Harry said...

Bloomberg News: Stocks Cheapest Since 1990 as Analysts Boost Estimates
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBxFBilER4Eg&pos=5

Win said...

Thanks for putting your views on Apple up there, Carl. Good luck to you!

Aarpenn said...

Guys,

Come on, this is not a real economic recovery. Carl is a technical trader. His analysis have been very accurate from a Technical trade perspective. No one could have read the charts and patterns better. From the fundamental perspective also this was foreseen back in 2009. Any time central banls cut interest rates and/or print money all the asset valuations go up...with the "easy money" of course. This cycle is temporary! As soon as the central banks all over the world sense inflation, they will raise interest rates, and that's when 'there is chance' of a double dip or at least a significant pull back. It's not a real recovery until there is jobs growth, and *normal* inflation

tempo said...

Carl's estimates seem inconsistent since all asset classes seem to move in the same direction. For example, ES at 1270 would likely move oil, silver and gold up and leave 10 year Treasury rates stable or down. 4.5% on the 10 years would likely mean a big sell off in ES and lower oil and gold prices. Over the next 6 months all of the estimates will probably occur, but not at the same time.

Plonit said...

Carl,

Could you please post an update on the GOOG guesstimates?

Thank you

janet said...

Thank you Carl for adding apple to the daily list. I appreciate it!

valeriobrl said...

...didn't see volume on the breakout of the neckline...("H and S bottom Hypothesis (13)" tag on my blog)...so I'm agree with the bearish view on gold.