Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Guesstimates on April 13, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is again 1188 - 1200. The 1200 level is strong resistance so a break of 20-30 points is likely to start this week. The dull, listless trading makes me think this market has to go higher to attract enough sellers to generate a break bigger than 20-30 points.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 and higher is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

May Crude: The market has moved visibly above resistance but I still think the next big move will take it to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

1 comment:

PM said...

Good Morning Carl,

On 4/09/2010 05:40:00 PM I commented to another poster on your blog as follows:

"For Monday, for example, the resistance point, as you put it, is 1196.50. These are not resistance levels at all, these are price points where the market is over stretched and cannot sustain further buying, provided the market reaches that point on its specified day."

Well, we indeed hit that price and sold off. This means we should see some selling at this time. As strong as this market has been, I won't even try to guess what kind of selling we might see, but it appears that selling should now enter this market.

Provided we actually do move lower, then my initial downside maximum stretch point will be 1142.30, give or take a few ticks.


Kindest regards,