Thursday, April 01, 2010

Guesstimates on April 1, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1165 - 1176. The market is still stuck in a 20 point trading range but I think a strong move upward will begin soon. The ES should reach 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 and higher is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

May Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00. Resistance is in the 81-83 range.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.


Larry said...

Don't look now but crude futures hit 85 this morning and gold's high was 124.5. And the dollar didn't plummet. Confusing markets to say the least.

curt said...

crude is interesting, and a bit of a surprise at least for me....a close above the old high would mean the bull market is back in full force and $100 is likely sometime before the end of the year.

sandy allred said...

My hope is that oil hits $105 on 2 June when energy hyteria will reign once again.

Adsense said...

Hi carl
my bias is upside in sotck market into august yet right now we have a few bearish cycles begining that run into mid may .dow 11041-11166 will be difficult . the 10 day advance decline has turned down
a rally over the next week should bring this indicator back up yet most likely it will produce a lower high .crude oil has resistance in the 86.24-102.31 level . begining next week to add a bit of confusion to this , there is a longer term 42 1/2 yr cycle that has a sub cycle low due , this should bring an overall bullish tone to the market , hence any declines will mostly be weak events .dow 10600=10700 is now the support zone im looking at
resistance runs from 11041-11800
into august 2010

Bill said...

If oil goes up too much,it can negatively affect the US economy and stocks. Maybe not now, but it's not good on a long term basis.

High oil and a potential fed tightening could be the catalyst for a major correction in the stock market in the second half of the year, 20% or more.

Still bullish long term on the economy but there are bumps ahead that I wanted to point out.

alexnewbee said...

oil is one of the options for them to sell bonds. another one - throw the equities under the bus. next week there is considerable supply of this stuff (bonds), so I can follow why they are pushing oil. I also cannot follow bullish call of Carl now.

alexnewbee said...

by the way, nasdaq already broke down..

Adsense said...

after looking at the close today
and being a bit speculative in the 60 minute chart , it can be argued that the last several days were pts 16 through 20 in a mini 3 peaks domed house pattern . given the speed of this pattern on a 60 min chart the dow would need to head up to pt 21 monday and could complete pts 21 22 and 23 by tuesday next week . this would be the 2nd reaction from the feb lows
( wave 4 i suppose ) we would then need to see another rally or possible a sideways trend before a rally . either way i would say we have upside left but most likely we have the momentum peak coming in now from the feb lows and possibly a larger cycle topping process which runs into august .
nuff said
good luck joe

E said...

Great call again today Carl.

Range guesstimate near enough for gov't work.

The Boyz seem to be playing with us at both ends with the head fakes. A bit wider stop or slightly more conservative entry may be the ticket these days.

Thanks for your invaluable insights.

Enjoy your Holiday, You have earned it.

Edwin said...

Since I read your book yesterday (a very long day). I put your teaching in use.

In today's Washington Post. The news with added jobs is of small print off the side and CHILDREN LEFT BEHIND WAS THE CENTER PIECE.

In LA Times, right below the job news was ppl resort to FREELANCE (the lack of job).

Conclusion: We are far away from all bulls getting on boar. The market can go much higher.

Win said...

In my opinion, this is the final stage (Wave 5) of this bull market. Please note that I'm not saying that the analysis is wrong -- in fact, I agree with Carl and you on further upside.

Edwin said...


This is OK. As a trader, I ride the trend until it is broken and I am praying for a nice correction (say 19.9%-:)). There are many break-outs toward the end of last week so I am hoping to see a parabolic 5th.

I can and will short the market if and when...