Thursday, April 08, 2010

Guesstimates on April 8, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1165 - 1177. I think the drop from 1188 will amount to 20-25 points. After it ends the ES should rally to 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 and higher is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

May Crude: The market has moved visibly above resistance but I still think the next big move will take it to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.


spycharter said...

SPY filled a gap at 117.82 yesterday and bounced hard off the gap support to finish the day. SPY has a gap to fill at 117. This corresponds to 1165 on ES, so I agree with your low end of the range prediction. There's a possibility though that SPY rallies back to 118.38 to fill the gap down this morning before proceeding to drop to 117.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

Well, it looks like we'll get that sell signal confirmed today as anticipated over the last couple of days, but I'm not expecting to see much selling considering this has been a bull market rally. In the worst case, we could see 1148.00 tested (give or take a few ticks), but I doubt we'll see even that. If we drop below that level, then 1122.80 would be the next lower level of good support.

Provided the sell signal is confirmed today, then the buy signal for tomorrow would be a close above 1185.30.


Kindest regards,


Harry said...

Perhaps the correction is now completed. This what a bull market looks like, sorry bears.