Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Guesstimates on April 7 , 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1174 - 1185. The ES should reach 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 and higher is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

May Crude: The market has moved visibly above resistance but I still think the next big move will take it to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

15 comments:

siricor said...

Your insight is always appreciated Carl. Reluctantly, took some profit yesterday after seeing your afternoon comments and now I'm glad I did.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

After crunching the numbers after the market closed yesterday, the deadline for this rally has been extended by only one day. This means tomorrow, April 8th, is when we must close above 1194.60 for a confirmed sell signal to be triggered. No doubt, I may get some jeers from the peanut gallery for being precise and accurate, but that's life in the fast lane.

For today, a close below 1178.30 would also give me a confirmed sell signal.

If we close ABOVE 1194.60 tomorrow, then no sell signal will be triggered and the rally should continue on its way to higher ground.

Thanks.

Kindest regards,

PM

TMG2010 said...

PM,
As I have said in a previous post, I have been trading for some 20 yrs. and read charts/trendlines and most indicators. I read constantly and tap into some 25 blogs (which are all over the board). On the blogs I look for consistant predictions/calls. A prudent, smart trader will take all that he/she reads and sees and then make the final decision based on it all. That's my view on this situation and I'm sticking to it. :-) Everyone is entitled to their opinion...the more the better. Thanks!

siricor said...

Like I said, Carl is King. Just covered half my short and so glad I sold those longs yesterday!

Harry said...

TMG2010 ,

Besides Carl's excellent blog, which are your top 3 other
favorite blogs?

Thanks
H

Plonit said...

Why aren't you entering a long contract at 1174?

It fits your daily guesstimates and the bottom of the chart you posted yesterday.

Joe said...

Just plain brilliant. I would also think that was the correction and now it's off to new races. Carl, how do you do this? How long did it take you to become this brilliant?
Joe

Carl Futia said...

Oh, about 45 years.

Teich said...

Futia nailed today's ES range to within 1 point. He truly is brilliant.

Ross said...

Hi Carl, Crude seems to have broken out but DUG did not go to a new low.. Has your projection for Crude to $50 changed and if not are we close to the top?
-Ross

fiona said...

Hi Carl,
Many thanks for all your help.

What do you see once we get to 1225 or so - or do we have to get there first before you update?

Edwin said...

We have a significant negative divergence between price and the McClellan Oscillator ratio since the first week in March and the McClellan Oscillator closed below zero today, which is a sell signal. If history rhythms, we are looking at a 10% correction. Could I be wrong, absolutely.

E said...

45 years of study is mind boggling.

I imagine you have seen a lot of changes in the industry; referring to the technology part of the business.

No predictions here, not as smart as most of you guys.

Just a newbie here, only been at this for 15 years.

Thanks Carl

P said...

@Teich: I don't think it's about Carl nailing today's range estimate within a point -- I think it's the sheer *consistency* with which he gets it right.

Guess we all know that just market insight makes a great trader not. Carl is much more than just that brilliance.

TMG2010 said...

Harry,
My 3 best Blogs outside of Carl's exceelent one are:

http://www.pugridironsma.blogspot.com/

http://mbewtrader.blogspot.com/

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/

These will give a variety of style. I have made mistakes in the past from being way too Bullish or Bearish. Read both sides of the coin and make your own decision... Good Luck!