Friday, April 09, 2010

sold long unit at 1183.75


Teich said...

I wonder if Carl would consider today's trading "dull"? So far the range has been 6 pts with very low volume, especially during midday. I thought the activity should be higher since we are at the recovery high.

Wags94596 said...

People continue to talk about VOLUME, but as far as I'm concerned it is literally a "worthless" indicator. People should be trading based on PRICE, not Volume.

Besides, isn't that what your Broker pays you in.... Price???

JayW said...


I got shook out as well. Seems every morning it's tough to get long the ES as it whips around violently, but by days end it has made new highs. I guess I need to widen my stop. Anyway, thanks for the great analysis and it looks as if 1200 will happen next week.

ARJ said...

just scanned through Carl's insights, and surprised to see the market to shake Carl out, then push up to his hight target for the day (albeit the last few minutes' push). Amazing!

E said...


I made an observation to a few friends today that the lack of volume seemed odd; almost as if the Bears were capitulating and keeping their powder dry for a higher level.

Volume is one clue, and usually a good one when I see "stopping volume" and /or divergence.

Price is the final arbiter of course.

Carl's calls as good as they get right now.

TG4TA.stockman said...

Volume is mostly useless...on a climb of the wall of worry.

However, if there was a sell-off on large volume, would you not take notice?

All in all, those who look to volume to say that this climb cannot go higher...well, they've said that since May 2009 (~950). That's missing a 26% rally.

Finally, with interest rates at 0, where do you think money will go? No offense, but why don't Elliottician's take that into account?

Last but not least, anyone who backtests a method will see clearly that whipsaws degrade profit. I don't know if Carl can say he's been profitable over 10-20 years, but in my backtesting, only one method has stood out for the indexes. That is the moving average crossover. The ADX, MACD, STOCHASTICS all yielded equivalent or lower gains than the true S&P yield.

Then again, over 20 years, the moving average crossover on WMT was LESS than buy-hold WMT during the same time-frame. So, if you look at WMT (tight range since 2000 (that's why I tested it), you will see what whipsaws can do to profit/capital. Be aware. These type of blue chip stocks exist (HD, PFE, MSFT, etc.), and "trading" them is hazardous to your portfolio. Let's just hope the S&P, NDX, DOW do not do the same.

Teich said...

As I mentioned earlier, I think ES is hitting the top of a channel: