Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Guesstimates on April 6, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1173 - 1185. The ES should reach 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 and higher is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

May Crude: The market has moved visibly above resistance but I still think the next big move will take to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

12 comments:

PM said...

Good Morning Carl,

We have today and tomorrow for the market to rally and close above 1194.60 or my model will issue a confirmed sell signal. The only way a confirmed sell signal can be avoided is if the market closes at 1194.60 or higher on Wednesday's close.

Thanks.

Kindest regards,

PM

S Mohiuddin said...

PM your regards are not the kindest. For the sake of intellectual honesty, please post all your forecasts at one website (with a verifiable time-stamp). Only then people will be able to trust your model, and who knows one day you may be the next big wall-street idol with people lining up to hear the PM-model speaketh.
But until then, your model prediction are highly biased and it will be tough to take it seriously by anyone (except you of course).

Nick said...

PM,
Is your user name Ground Zero at http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=57934

That is the website you pointed out a few days ago. I was just reading a post on there that said we must close above 1194.60 on Wednesday or it will confirm a sell signal.
Nick

PM said...

Hi Nick,

Yes, that is my nick name at Silicon Investor, and that is correct, we must close above 1194.60 by tomorrow or we'll have a confirmed sell signal.

Best regards,

PM

PM said...

Dear S Mohiuddin,

I don't know what you're looking at, but everything is always time stamped. But regardless, my statement is being posted today about tomorrow's price. My goodness, how much more advance notice do you need?

Perhaps my posts are over your head, so you might try to ignore them to avoid any further confusion.

Have a nice day.

PM

Harry said...

PM

Are you talking about E-mini SP500 closing 1194.60 by tomorrow or the SP500?

By the way oil continues its breakout bull run today, although more modestly, and is ignoring fundimentals. It is being driven by old fashion money inflows (Goldman & others), IMO.

PM said...

Hi Harry,

Yes, I'm referring to the large SP contract.

RE: CRUDE OIL

On 12/23/2009 11:27:00 AM I submitted to Carl the following:

"For what it's worth, I bought crude oil today. If the global economies recover, then we will likely see an increase in energy needs and oil consumption, especially by the emerging countries that use crude oil primarily. Also, the oil producing countries already said they would like to see the benchmark price from crude oil in 2010 to be $88 BBL. This is much higher than the current benchmark price, therefore they will certainly cut production while demand increases in order to meet their benchmark goal."

Best regards,

PM

curt said...

Harry...absolutely correct. The commodity desks are getting huge inflows of cash.

I'm looking for a bid on PM's "model"...anyone?

Harry said...

The amazing regenerating bull market continues this AM. After 2 hours of trading, on a day that started with some overnight weakness - perhaps precipitated by renewed "noise" outy of Europe about Greece -- but which appears merely to have provided another buying opportunity for underinvested, under-performing fund managers at the advbent of QII. Be that as it may, let's notice the e-SPM pivoted off this AM's low at 1177.25, which managed (once again) to preserve the prior pullback low from yesterday att 1174.50, and now is oushing higher to new post March 2009 highs at 1184.25 so far. As long as 1177.25 remains intact as today's pivot low, the e-SPM appears poised to climb towards 1200-1220 next.

S Mohiuddin said...

PM, no need to get so defensive. I am just pointing that publishing your forecasts in the comment section appears to be ripe for 'cherry-picking'.
If things turn out as you say you will shout "I told you so", if not you'll sit quiet. Perfect. Come to think of it I cant remember you owning up to numerous incorrect forecasts that you made in the past.
Having all your forecasts in one place like Carl puts transparency at the forefront of your model and thus will only strengthen people's confidence in your call. In other words, it should be easy for people to cross-check your past calls and see if they panned out correctly or not. Given that you have no intention of revealing your 'secret' sauce to the public, (but been persistent in posting its output), its only fair to ask for a report card.
If not, Carl should seriously reconsider his decision to post people's models (that are not up to scrutiny whatsoever). This distracts Carl's readers and only adds to confusion.
Thanks

PM said...

Dear S Mohiuddin,

My model is about 70% accurate over the long haul, and whenever it's wrong I readily say so. I do suggest you read over all the posts I've submitted to Carl over the past two years, there you would find my admittedly bad signals and you would not have implied that I'm somehow hiding in the shadows after the fact. I hardly sit quietly, I would get an eventual buy signal and I'm still actively trading. I've posted ALL my signals with Carl over the past two years, except for the times I travel abroad, which can be a month or more at a time.

My model sets parameters for the market, I don't make predictions or market calls. I follow the market, I don't pretend to lead it in any way.

If I'm wrong in what I'm now saying, then Carl would certainly offer a comment or not post this.

Another poster asked me about a thread that I do host, you're certainly welcome to visit and see what my model is all about. I never sit quietly.

Again, if my posts to Carl only confuse you, then I suggest you not read my posts.

Thanks.

PM

Edwin said...

I sold all my GLD today since it broke out from its price channel but with little volume....unlike the previous break-outs.

It looks very tired to and it may start the decline very soon?