Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Guesstimates on August 10, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: I think the market's action yesterday and early this morning is telling us that a 50 point drop is in the works. A close today below the 1111 level would confirm this prognosis. Today's range estimate is 1102-1122. Even so, I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Unknown said...


What do you see in 1111? Please elaborate.


Nav said...

1110--1111 great floor .buying and doesn't look like 50 pts correction to me,now.I am out of trade as my work
is still not convinced w/big drop and
98% your estimates had been correct in last 8 mnths.
Thanks alot for guidance.

dcatlowpj said...

It is interesting in that I was thinking we were "due for a drop" or a minor correction. The part that concerns me is that a 50 point drop (are you think the 1077 area, Carl) is quite a pullback. This could shake out some longs and cause the bears to pile on for another 50 points at least.

Edwin said...

My take is that the 200 day SMA (SPX Cash 1,115.50) is the line in sand.Also, a drop below 20 day EMA (1106.30) would cause me to go short under the Extreme Point rule if SPX closes below last Friday's low.

Folks, I suggest you come up with a trading plan and take advantage of Carl's generous guidance. You are empowered with confidence.

Nav said...

Edwin.. you sound wise.
I will go long today as
In AsiaPac, the biggest release will be the July eco numbers for China which hit Tuesday night/Weds morning (Trade Balance, PPI, CPI, Retail Sales and IP).
Tomorrow CSCO results..
Always grateful to Carl's teachings
and insight which is the best.
Yesterday's short over 1125 was justified but not now..
Happy safe trading to all on this site!
No shorts for me whatever..

Trading The Charts said...

This is the first time i'm thinking that the usd is very near a low. usdindex may have one more push down to about 77 then take off and take the MAJORITY by TOTAL surprise. If i see 78 I'll start buying in the money put options in EUR.

Watching the USD index and EURUSD...