Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Guesstimates on August 11, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: I had thought that yesterday's close above 1116 meant that the ES was on its way to 1145-50. But sellers took back control of the market right after the close, dropping the ES to 1101.75 by early this morning. This moves me back to my scenario of an ongoing, 50 point break. Today's range estimate is 1090-1110. Even so, I still think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Short term support is 45.50

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Edwin said...

There is a gap at SPX Cash 1069 roughly at the 50% Fib. retracement of the July low to August high where traders may gravitate.

This may be a healthy pause to refresh as technical traders (like me) refused to buy the current "Ending diagonal" and a drop would flatten the trend-line for a the next leg-up.

dcatlowpj said...

I exited my SSO long over a week ago and side-lined. Reality has finally been connected to the markets. Does anyone else see how sudden a mentality shift occurred from the "we are recovering, slowly" to the new line, "well, things are not moving along as quickly as we thought" Bernanke-spew. This has shaken equities markets. I see a large vol spike at the open where some large block trades were closed. This is not an easy one to call,but Carl's guess is as good as anyone else's.

raven said...

This is a great buying opportunity within a bull market.