Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Late Update

The ES last tick of the day was 1049.75, below the midpoint of the day session which was 1051.125.
This leads me to believe that the ES will reach the 1035-40 zone tomorrow and there establish the low of the drop from 1127. Failing that I would interpret a move above today's day session high at 1058.25 very bullishly.


roguewave said...

TIME is so important and not just WHERE or PRICE. Early or late in the day.. early or late in the week ..early or late in the month seems to offer the best opportunities. Especially on intraday ..WHEN to trade should be dominant over WHERE to trade..Carl if you keep a journal I think you'll find much of your time and money is being wasted trying to swing from midday entries and with small stops. Yes some work...but over a 1000 attempts it is lost time and money. This is a pickpocket market. The electronic nature reveals all for pickpocketing. We had three pushes down midday which the whole world knows about ..then the fourth push avalanch was the pickpocket drive gathering inventory as the small retail stops gather together. Then not three but four pushes up and collapse all over again. The best opportunity?.....yes... early in the day and late in the day...the 10 o'clock report and the late pm high. Trading midday a poor bet most often. Good night.

pej said...

Hi Carl,

You have a very strong bullish bias though. Any failure to drop below any resistance is "very bullish", but every time the resistance is too weak and it drops below it, and you don't see it as "bearish" at all.

Given the ugly month of August, and the historically week September, even ignoring the fundamentals, I'm getting even more and more confirmed in my bearishness.

monkeypicks said...

The market is here to fool everyone. Therefore everyone like yourself is thinking we go lower tomorrow. This market is going to rally hard for the next two days.

Nav said...

Despite sentiment seeming to be very negative, it appears like many are anticipating some kind of a rally (after the rally this morning, the consensus thinking def. thought we could finish the day off small or maybe slightly in the green). Volumes today were actually pretty heavy (much higher than Mon and looks like the highest since 8/11).
1040 WILL be the key level to watch!
Thanks and good night!

Edwin said...

a bullish wedge is under development. If it is completed at 1,040, a retracement to 1,100 would be very normal.

Nav said...

The Fed’s Fisher intra-day today (during a Fox Business interview) said the Aug 10 wasn’t contentious and that the FOMC goal was simply to avoid a shrinking of the balance sheet (which would have happened at an accelerating rate b/c MBS maturities were picking up as a result of robust refinancing activity). If Bernanke can have a repeat performance of his successful “60 Minutes” interview
from Mar ’09 and set the record straight when it comes to the Fed’s outlook and capabilities, then sentiment could recover.
1:51am in London and going through your old blogs to reach to right analysis...My Passion to learn!(33 hrs w/mkt)

Dreamer said...

Carl, do you have a capitulation point? Is there a low that would cause you to say "my bullish outlook was wrong".

I'm not saying you're right or wrong, I'm just curious because that price might make a good support area.

Don't tell me if the S&P hits 700 again, you'll say "I think 700 will hold and a new upward leg in the bull market will start soon" ....