Thursday, August 05, 2010

Guesstimates on August 5, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1116-1130. The market has resumed its move to 1145-50. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Initial target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 450 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


dcatlowpj said...

Carl, my trading partner and I, who regularly visit this site, would like to recommend that you add some stop/target levels to your daily ranges. For example, today, one would benefit from a simple, "put in stop loss should the ES break below $1115.25" and "if the ES holds $1118.50 in the first half hour, go long and place your target at $1124.75..." Or some such language. It is clear from your trade yesterday that you placed a stop at a non-arbitrary loss level based on your proprietary trading methodology. Those who blindly go long or short would benefit and this would make this site a must see and your book a must buy. Offered with sincerity,

Dave J

extrader said...

what an ugly choppy day to trade today.... i guess its officially August!

cc02 said...

Thanks for speaking out for a lot of us.
Your site is a must read for me everyday,often re-read it again and again during the session,thanks.

Edwin said...

After whipsawed a couple of times this week in this range bounded market, I finally realized that deploying Carl's "box" tool would have saved me a lot of agony and money and if I had just sit tight and wait for the break-out/down. Resolution may come tomorrow.

Thanks. Carl.

Nav said...

Absolutely tiring,annoying day for me,too!
People take me a very calm person,but not... I was lost and listening Mika's song "Rain".
Guess estimates were fantastic,It is bullish tomorrow: otherwise buying on closing makes no sense.
NFP should be positive as don't remember but read somewhere 150k instead of 90k recruitments in Private Sector is observed.
With all roughness, Cant help appreciating YOUR GUESS ESTIMATES!
Stay safe and live long wonderful life w/your loved ones as you make my going easy.

q said...

Dear Dcatlowpj,
Stop loss risk management is a true art! Listing stop loss levels will not help much. MK

MA said...

Market Karma - I think some basic stop loss points would greatly assist people in better understanding where the risk of holding a trade becomes too great.

I think this would also help people develop some discipline in money management rather than relying on hope.

dcatlowpj said...

I absolutely agree: stops are an point is that Carl uses this art/science in his personal plan and I see only part of the daily trading plan posted here by our Guru. I love the range boxes and estimates. The long range is just what it is. That is already huge here. I would love to visit Carl's blog and get an idea of what HIS stops and targets might be for the day with the condition/understanding that some of us scalp, some swing (daily, longer term, a combo)...thanks for the comments.

Appreciate the blog, Carl.