Friday, August 20, 2010

Guesstimates on August 20, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1060-1075. I am expecting a low near 1055 early next week. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Next upside target is 50.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is imminent. Support is at 85.50.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


straightshooter2000 said...

The drums are beating louder on this Hindenburg Omen. They're saying there's a confirmation on it. Will this effect your decisions in any way?

Carl Futia said...

Show me the burning dirigible and I may stop laughing.

Wags94101 said...

First it was the infamous "Death Cross" then it was Arch Crawford's "Cardinal Climax" and now we have the "Hindenberg Omen".... LOL!

What will the Perma-Bears think up next!


sandy allred said...

It appears we are probing the 107.60 support area on SPY and will head up to the 114 area by late next week.

Nav said...

Software – strong earnings last night, esp. from CRM (INTU and MENT also strong(Expected)
Yesterday was a BIG day,indeed!Thanks!In other words, fundamentals are the focus while valuations, particularly relative value, have been secondary. Increasingly, we are also hearing investors note the challenge of making money in equities, with a surprising number shifting into corporate credit. Based on our Circle of Life analysis, equities have modestly improved overall, aided by improving price momentum in some industries.
The big bull thesis for banks has always been looking at PEs on ’11, ’12, and ’13 “normalized” earnings; however, the weak revenue environment for the industry is causing some to question when/if those levels of EPS will be achieved.
loved" burning dirigible"!
Not Trading as "Never diddle in the middle".
YOU gave a wonderful week to us and
Wish you w/loved ones a great happy ,joyful weekend!
Thank you so very much! ..Can be useful!

extrader said...

i think this country is heading towards a double dip recession... i really dont see anything getting better! jmo


ga said...

Considering that Carl's last trade was a profitable short, it seems clear to me that it really doesn't matter what his long term outlook or bias is.

I will follow along and watch his daily work because his long term calls dont matter in the short term.

And y'all laugh all you want about the various bearish signals. I dont see ANYONE ANYWHERE showing me BULLISH signals of this magnitude.

the markets will be the arbiter.

extrader said...

good place to go longer here at 1063.50

Edwin said...

MACD went below the ZERO line on the daily chart supports your idea of 1055 next week. From there, we may begin a meaningful rally.

Wags94101 said...

People in the Blogosphere continue to make the WRONG assumption that equity prices and earnings have a HIGH correlation with the Economy. This is not true at all. In fact, if you check most studies you will find that the correlation between stock prices and the Economy is often NEGATIVE!

I enjoy Carl's opinions because he is the ONLY person on the web that actually TRADES for a living. All of the other bloggers and especially those that focus on Elliott Wave Theory do not trade. Yet, they have tons of posters and followers that are all looking for the same collapse in US equity prices and the veritable "unicorn" called P3.

If anything, the current market environment smacks a lot like April of 2003 with the same mid-cycle pullback.

Check your charts.