Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Guesstimates on August 31, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1025-1045. The ES has dropped all the way back to Friday's low. This is a bearish development. I now think the market is headed for 1010-15.

QQQQ: Headed for 42.50 where I expect a higher low to be established.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The thirty year yield has dropped well below long term support at 3.85%. I think the market is at a juncture like that of December 2008 - fast drop in yield that will be followed by a fast rise. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 126.00 and from there a move into the 135-40 zone should start.

Dollar-Yen: The yen broke decisively below its 85.50 support. A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

October Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 440 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Joge said...

readers of Carl's blog please go to the link given above and vote for Carl

smcneill said...

This market is like a pin ball machine - bouncing from one report to the next. This morning saw three reversals - 9:30, 9:45 and 10:00.

Now where going up.

kcounty said...

why does TA not have any sort of error bars? That is, why do you think you can pick to the penny?

Even engineers don't get that kind of precision and accuracy.