Monday, August 16, 2010

Guesstimates on August 16, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: The 1050-60 range is still my downside target. Today's range estimate is 1060-1080. I think that a new upward leg in the bull market started from the 1003 low made July 5.

QQQQ: A new upward leg in the bull market has started. Short term downside target is now 43.50

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has dropped more than I expected. Still, I think the next big move in yields will be upward. The 2.65% level now looks like support. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is now at 85.50.

September Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. But any weakness below 1150 will mean that a drop to 875 has begun.

SLV - September Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 470 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Nav said...

Good Morning!
In addition to the general economic negativity (which is causing people to fear a stalling out of the recent credit improvement), there were a few financial specific events that hit the banks: 1) the Fannie/Freddie refinance speculation (which could harm the value of bank’s MBS holdings); 2) the flattening in the yield curve (the 2-10 spread fell ~16bp on the week); 3) reports of job cuts at some investment banks (a Bloomberg article this week discussed how Barclays and CSFB, among others, are starting to trim back on headcount b/c of slow activity levels). The industrials dropped ~4.6% w/selling pressure much across the board (transports, machinery, etc) as the most cyclical stocks came for sale amid concern about the economic outlook.
For the financials/credit cards, watch for the master trust numbers that are due to hit throughout the session on Mon Aug 16. Away from earnings/analyst meetings, the Treasury/White House is going to be hosting a large conference Tues (Aug 17) to explore the future of Fannie/Freddie and the US mortgage market. Congress remains on recess, but Obama will be campaigning throughout a bunch of states ahead of the Nov mid-term elections. Congress won’t come back into session until Sept and there is really only one major issue left for the year – the Bush tax cuts.
Thank you for your generosity!

straightshooter2000 said...

Carl, do you give credence to this Hindenburg Omen that calls for a crash? I've been reading about it on a few blogs.

raven said...

The Bull market continues. Whats not to like? Corporations are beating expectations.

Sure we have had a death cross and now the Hindenburg Aspect but all of these technical aspects are occurring or have occurred during over sold conditions.

Remember don't "Fight the Fed".

Like Cramer said who cares about 17% unemployment, low small business confidence, 40 million Americans on food stamps?

Do not let anyone talk you out of what is apparently the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Yash said...

TYX TNX all broken long term support now new norms should be established.. we are in bubble of those bonds .. when home prices were increasing in bubble all long term resistances were kept aside and prices kept rising .. of course no one compaint as it was rising .. so why to complain now if long term support is getting broken .. enjoy capital gains on tresury bonds till it lasts.
raven -- are you fed yourself? i can understand stock markets will be up and may stay up for some time but that won't make anyone happy here ... comman man w/o job just can not earn money from stock market just because its going up .. he dosen't have even mood to look at stock market.

pimaCanyon said...

I think Hindenberg Omen (HO) is suspect for this reason: The NYSE of today is not the NYSE of yesteryear. Today we have boocoo ETF's that are traded on the NYSE, no? Some are commodity ETF's, some are bond ETF's, currency ETF's, even double and triple INVERSE stock index ETF's. So if part of the criteria for the HO is percentage of new highs or lows or anything to do with the advance decline line, then comparing today's numbers with number from numbers from before the days of all the ETF's is an apples to oranges comparison.

I am not saying that we are not going to have a crash (I have no idea!), but I am saying that using a technical pattern that looks at new high/lows on the NYSE among other things and produced a predictable result in the past cannot be seen as a reliable indicator today because of the different mix of stocks and etf's that are traded on the NYSE today compared to what was traded on that exchange pre-year2000.

roguewave said...

HO and market forcast is like weather does not always rain when it is cloudy...but when it does rain it was cloudy...sam ting with HO...and sam ting with countertrend reversals..many false occurances just like many false predictions...a fool's errand

tempo said...

Follow the money...Treasuy is the only game in town as they issue more and more notes backed by an unlimted ability to tax. This is profitable for the mega banks/Corporations who write the spending bills. So stock prices will go up. Also the elite families must stay in power in the Nov elections for the gravy train to continue. So equity prices will continue to slowly increase until there is an unsuccessful Treasury auction. That may be years from now. More and more power will move to the Washington/Wall Street group who will increasing decide more and more of winners and losers. Follow the money...Some of it will end up in equities.

Nav said...

We continue to favor Cyclicals in US, given their greater leverage to GDP upside, business sensitivity to easing credit (for consumers and small-biz), EPS revisions, analyst upgrade potential, valuation expansion and M&A activity. In Europe, we think Cyclicals will continue to outperform Defensives in 2010, but the likely size of their outperformance will be much smaller as 1) the relative performance of Cyclical and Defensive sectors is correlated to macro momentum.
1066-1068 was strong short covering
and was easy to trade within your range Sir!
I am on simple charts w/my friends and depending on your g.est.Tweet Deck is completely removed and now much easy to stick to my set plan.
Learnings from you are working positively and obliged for every knowledge and wisdom I'm receiving from you.
Stay Safe,Sir!

ga said...

Carl--why do you never answer questions put forth on this blog??? It is not like you don't SEE THEM!

Joge said...

Please go to stock charts and vote for carl futia